中国房地产周报：市场需要更多动力-20251028

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a need for more policy support to stimulate market activity [7][43]. Core Views - The new housing transaction volume in 30 major cities decreased by 22.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from the previous week's decline of 24.4% [1][14]. - The report highlights that the transaction volume in first-tier cities continues to show a narrowing increase or expanding decrease, with Beijing down 6.7% and Shanghai down 1.1% year-on-year [2][17]. - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 14.9% year-on-year, although it increased by 19.6% month-on-month [4][32]. - The report emphasizes the need for more robust policy measures to invigorate the real estate market, as recent policy discussions have not sufficiently addressed the sector's challenges [7][43]. Summary by Sections New Housing Sales - The new housing sales volume in 30 major cities reached 1.97 million square meters, down 22.1% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -33.4%, -14.0%, and -21.0% respectively [1][14]. - Cumulative new housing sales in first-tier cities show a mixed performance, with Beijing and Shenzhen experiencing declines, while Guangzhou saw a 3.0% increase [2][17]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - The inventory-to-sales ratio for major cities was 101.2, higher than last year's 70.2 but lower than the previous week's 112.9 [3][25]. - First-tier cities had an inventory-to-sales ratio of 63.4, up from 44.9 last year but down from 71.8 the previous week [3][25]. Land Transactions - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 24.11 million square meters, down 14.9% year-on-year but up 19.6% month-on-month [4][32]. - First-tier cities saw a 24.1% year-on-year increase in land transaction volume, while second-tier cities increased by 7.6% [32]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report notes that the recent policy discussions from the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee have not provided substantial support for the real estate sector, indicating a need for more decisive actions [5][39]. - The focus on high-quality development in the "14th Five-Year Plan" includes promoting real estate development, but the specifics remain vague [5][39]. Stock Performance - The report indicates that the Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks lagged behind the broader market, with the Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rising only 0.2% [6][41]. - Specific stocks such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [8][44].