Lushang Freda Pharmaceutical (SH:600223) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-28 14:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in net profit of 23.1% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 2.6 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year. The focus on "cosmeceuticals" and the "5+N" core technology matrix is expected to drive future performance improvements [7] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 246 million, 287 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.24, 0.28, and 0.32 yuan [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 32.5, 27.9, and 24.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in the cosmetics segment, down 8.2%, with a gross margin of 61.2%. The pharmaceutical segment generated 310 million yuan, down 17.5%, while the raw materials segment saw revenue of 280 million yuan, up 11.2% [8] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 51.5%, with stable expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D [8] - The company’s brand value has significantly increased, with the "Yilian" brand achieving a valuation exceeding 12 billion yuan, and the launch of new products contributing to sales growth [9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.06 billion yuan for 2025, 4.41 billion yuan for 2026, and 4.76 billion yuan for 2027, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 8.5%, and 8.0% respectively [10] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 246 million yuan, with a slight increase to 287 million yuan in 2026 and 329 million yuan in 2027 [10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 52.5% for 2025, 53.1% for 2026, and 53.6% for 2027 [10]