国投期货农产品日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive trend prediction: Soybean No. 1, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Negative trend prediction: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs are rated with one star, suggesting a bias towards short - term trends but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of soybean No. 1 futures rebounded rapidly from the low today, covering the decline of the previous two days and accompanied by an increase in positions. The domestic soybean auction had a premium, with an average transaction price of 3,925 yuan/ton and a premium of 0 - 140 yuan/ton. The transaction rate was 34.49%. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans rose continuously this week, and the 2601 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange decreased its positions by more than 70,000 lots and rose 1.40% today. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the soybean meal pick - up has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit at the end of the month. Amid many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, continue to wait and see and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contract of US soybeans continued to rise. Although the Brazilian soybean CIF premium fell and the RMB continued to appreciate, the domestic imported soybean cost still increased. The futures market showed a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and the soybean crushing profit was still in the red. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - to - meal ratio correction. In the long run, palm oil is expected to be resilient, and it is recommended to allocate vegetable oils on dips. In the short term, be cautious about the price correction of palm oil due to the pressure in the Malaysian market [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the rapeseed sector was stronger than its competitors, which was related to market concerns about Sino - Australian relations. The export of Australian rapeseed to China is not yet stable. The Russian rapeseed has been listed for crushing, and its export trade to China is not optimistic. The rapeseed oil price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, while the rapeseed meal price has short - term rebound momentum [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures rose 0.28% today. The supply of new corn in the Northeast continues, and the price has risen slightly. The new corn in Jilin may be listed in large quantities again soon, which will suppress the market price. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. With the possible easing of Sino - US relations, the corn import situation should be continuously monitored. The Dalian corn is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures weakened significantly today, showing a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The spot price continued to rise, with the national average slaughter price reaching 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan. The futures increased positions and declined, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Although the supply pressure is still large, the large price difference between fattening pigs may promote second - round fattening and hog retention, and the pork consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous supply pressure, a short - position strategy is recommended after the price rebounds. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and a second bottom may occur in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures failed to continue the previous upward trend, opening lower this morning and oscillating downward throughout the day without filling the gap. The near - month contract led the decline today, and the positions decreased by 10,000 lots. The spot price in Hebei started to fall, with a large decline in the price of small eggs. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. The unsold cold - storage eggs are also a potential pressure on the spot market. A short - position strategy is recommended at high prices [9].