国投期货软商品日报-20251028

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Apple: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating short - term multi/empty trends in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - 20 - numbered rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards short, with a driving force for a downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, paper pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, price trends, and other factors. Most commodities are recommended for a wait - and - see approach currently [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, and the spot sales basis of cotton was mostly stable. Xinjiang seed cotton purchase prices were slightly stronger, but the increase was limited. As of October 26, the cumulative national cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for pure - cotton yarn spinning mills. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound with limited space, and it was recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. Brazil's sugar production remained high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and their sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential controls on syrup imports. The market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with positions. High - quality apples' prices were stable at a high level, while low - quality ones were weak. Good apples were in short supply, and prices were expected to remain high in the early sales period, but there was inventory pressure for low - quality apples later. The market was mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected, and it was recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - numbered Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU and NR oscillated, BR continued to decline. The domestic natural rubber spot price fell slightly, and the synthetic rubber price was stable. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased slightly. Domestic tire operating rate rebounded slightly, and inventories increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 432,200 tons, the Chinese butadiene port inventory dropped to 24,600 tons, and the Chinese cis - butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 14,000 tons. Demand was warming up, supply pressure was high, and it was recommended to wait and see [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures declined. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp was stable. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper pulp ports was 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports were 2.9525 million tons, an increase of 272,500 tons year - on - year. The port inventory was relatively high, demand was average, and it was expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a recommendation to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Timber - The futures price was weak. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased. Domestic importers' willingness to import decreased, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. Port shipments were over 60,000 cubic meters, and the low inventory supported the price. It was recommended to wait and see [7]