国投期货化工日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Overall, the chemical futures market shows a mixed performance with various factors influencing different sectors. Some sectors face supply - related pressures, while others are affected by demand changes and cost factors [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts declined. Supply pressure is hard to ease due to expected increases in supply from sources like Haiwei and Yulong. The anticipated increase in propylene volume may suppress spot prices [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also fell. For polyethylene, domestic supply is increasing while demand has limited impact on price. For polypropylene, supply is abundant and downstream demand only provides limited support [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene futures decreased. Short - term sentiment is bearish due to weakening oil prices, and high imports are a mid - term pressure. Attention should be paid to port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts declined. High inventory and stable downstream demand with increasing finished - product inventory put long - term pressure on prices [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are relatively strong. There is a short - term positive sentiment, but mid - term PTA may face inventory accumulation without effective measures [4] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is short - term inventory reduction, but mid - term accumulation is expected. It is advisable to short at high prices [4] - Short fiber has a good spot market currently, but may face inventory accumulation again. Bottle chip demand is weakening, and over - capacity is a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined. Port inventory is under pressure and demand is weak, with the market likely to remain in low - level oscillation [5] - Urea prices fell. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound after prices reach a low point [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply may increase, demand is stable, and exports are under pressure. It may operate in a bottom - range [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply is expected to rise, and downstream demand is average. Futures prices are likely to remain low [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Cost is rising, supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable. It is advisable to be cautious when shorting near the cost [7] - Glass prices rose. There are signs of improvement in the Shahe spot market, but downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. Downward movement may be limited [7]