世界货币变迁史：宏观经济专题研究

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver imports after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, which established a clearing system that reduced transaction costs by 50% [2] - The decline of the Guilder was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the banking system [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard [3] Group 3: Economic and Military Factors - The rise and fall of currencies are closely linked to trade volume, financial innovations, and the management of debt and military expenditures [4] - The British pound's decline was accelerated by the financial burdens of World War I and World War II, leading to significant devaluations in 1949 (30.5%) and 1967 (14.3%) [3] - The transition from the pound to the dollar as the dominant currency was facilitated by the establishment of the Federal Reserve and the growth of the U.S. economy post-World War II [3]