资产配置日报：兑现压力显现-20251028

Core Insights - The report highlights that after reaching high levels, both equity and bond markets are experiencing profit-taking pressure, leading to a common stress across both markets [1] - The A-share market has seen a volume contraction with the Wande All A index down by 0.34% and a trading volume of 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 4000 points for the first time in ten years, reaching a peak of 4010.73 before retreating, contrasting significantly with the previous 4000-point breakthrough in April 2015 [1] Equity Market Analysis - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for small-cap stocks is more moderate compared to 2015, with the current TTM P/E for the CSI 2000 at 60.69, down from 98.87 in April 2015 [2] - The equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 2.60%, slightly below the historical average, while it was only 0.54% in April 2015 [2] - The degree of leverage in the current bull market is significantly lower than in 2015, with the financing balance accounting for 2.51% of the A-share market's circulating value, compared to 3.87% in April 2015 [3] Market Structure and Trends - The current bull market exhibits more pronounced structural characteristics, with a higher coefficient of variation in industry performance, indicating greater disparity in sector gains [4] - The technology sector has seen substantial gains, while consumer and certain infrastructure sectors have not performed as well, with the top three performing industries since September 2024 being communication equipment, components, and semiconductors, with increases of 191.72%, 189.69%, and 154.61% respectively [4] - The turnover rate for the ChiNext index relative to the Wande All A index is at 144.21%, indicating a more moderate level of crowding compared to 181.94% in April 2015 [4] Bond Market Insights - The bond market reacted positively to the announcement of the resumption of central bank treasury operations, with long-term rates dropping by 4-5 basis points shortly after the announcement [6] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds increased slightly by 1.8 and 1.3 basis points respectively, indicating a cautious market response [7] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with some institutions opting for profit-taking while others continue to show strong demand for certain bond types [8] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is facing a cooling sentiment, particularly in precious metals, which have seen significant declines, with gold and silver down 4.20% and 3.32% respectively [9] - Industrial metals also experienced declines, with copper and aluminum down 1.09% and 0.56% [9] - A significant outflow of funds from the commodity market was noted, with a net withdrawal of 3.773 billion yuan, primarily from the precious metals sector [10]