周期，科技，地缘三重驱动下的有色行情

Report Title - "Cycle, Technology, and Geopolitics: A Triple - Drive for the Non - Ferrous Metals Market" [1] Report Date and Researcher - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ma Yun, mayun@cmschina.com.cn, contact number: 18682466799, qualification certificate number: Z0018708 [2] Table of Contents - 01 Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity - 02 Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - 03 Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - 04 Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework [4] Core Views - The non - ferrous metals market is driven by the triple factors of cycle, technology, and geopolitics. The cycle affects the market from aspects of liquidity, supply, and demand; technology brings new demand through metal applications in emerging fields; geopolitics impacts metal prices through strategic material status and currency - related factors [1] Section Summaries Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is in a rate - cutting cycle, and major economies are in a fiscal expansion period. For example, the U.S. has passed the Big Beautiful Act, discussing the end of balance - sheet reduction and facing a mid - term election next year; the EU Commission predicts that the EU's fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.3% in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026, with the debt - to - GDP ratio rising from 83.2% in 2025 to 84.5% in 2026; Japan is preparing an economic stimulus plan of over 13.9 trillion yen, and advancing the defense - spending target; China is implementing fiscal expansion, shifting from loose money to loose credit [5][8][10] Supply - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining industry, natural decline in mine grades, and depletion of mine resources. This phenomenon is not limited to copper enterprises, and different metal varieties have different investment cycles [11][12] Demand - China provides the beta for metal demand, while emerging countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide the alpha. The demand for metals in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is also increasing [14][21][23] Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - The report does not provide specific content in the given text Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - The U.S. has updated its key mineral list several times. In 2025 (expected), it plans to add 6 minerals such as copper, potassium, silicon, and silver, and consider removing arsenic and tellurium. Some countries have high concentrations in metal production, like Chile and Peru accounting for about 40% of global copper production, and Congo accounting for 75% of global cobalt production. China has a high degree of dependence on most metals except rare earths. Also, the pricing currency hegemony is being challenged, leading to a decline in the trust of global fiat currencies and a re - evaluation of physical assets [24][27] Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework - The report provides a metal pricing framework including factors such as stock price formula, metal price fluctuation formula, and considerations from macro, supply - demand, valuation, and market - behavior aspects, and finally gives trading strategies based on the analysis results [29]