东吴证券晨会纪要-20251029

Macro Strategy - The core focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes consumption, technology, and fiscal finance as key highlights, with a significant goal of increasing the resident consumption rate to stimulate economic growth and address downward economic pressures [1]. Fixed Income - The overall credit expansion across industries is moderate, with structural differentiation being the main theme. While some sectors are actively leveraging, the overall leverage increase remains limited, indicating a cautious approach towards maintaining liquidity [2]. - Industries currently experiencing credit expansion include light manufacturing, electronics, and public utilities, characterized by stable cash flows and clear policy guidance, suggesting potential opportunities for credit bond investments [2]. - Conversely, sectors like real estate and food and beverage are facing credit contraction, necessitating a macroeconomic recovery to boost demand [2]. Industry Reports - The "Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF" focuses on the insurance sector, showcasing a unique market position with a reasonable valuation and strong dividend yield, indicating good long-term investment potential [4]. - The ETF has shown robust liquidity and growth, with an average daily trading volume of 1.818 billion yuan, reflecting strong institutional demand for high-dividend financial assets [4]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in market conditions, with the ETF's performance being supported by the overall improvement in the insurance industry's outlook [4]. Company-Specific Insights - Shenghong Co., Ltd. is projected to see a steady increase in net profit from 500 million yuan in 2025 to 820 million yuan in 2027, benefiting from the rapid growth in the charging pile industry and overseas market expansion [6]. - Keda Technology is expected to experience significant profit growth, with net profits forecasted to rise from 590 million yuan in 2025 to 1.25 billion yuan in 2027, driven by the booming charging pile and energy storage sectors [7]. - Hai Li Wind Power reported a substantial revenue increase of 246% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, indicating strong operational performance despite short-term pressures [8]. - The company "Xingyuan Material" is adjusting its profit forecasts due to declining separator prices, with expected net profits of 150 million yuan in 2025, down from previous estimates, but still maintaining a "buy" rating due to long-term growth potential [27]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable cash flows and manageable refinancing pressures in sectors facing credit contraction, while also highlighting opportunities in industries showing signs of credit expansion [2][4]. - Specific companies such as "Huanlan Environment" and "Green Power" are highlighted for their strong positioning in the environmental sector, which is expected to benefit from policy support and market demand [5].