综合晨报：“十五五”规划建议全文发布-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown continues, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate. The stock market shows different trends, with US stock indices rising due to tech companies' capital expansion, while the Shanghai Composite Index faces a resistance level after breaking through 4000 points. [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy rumors, and corporate actions affect prices. For example, rumors of China's control over syrup imports are beneficial to the domestic sugar market, and the short - term de - stocking of lithium carbonate supports its price. [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government shutdown may last until November, leading to various negative impacts. The US consumer confidence index in October was 94.6. Gold prices fluctuated downward, breaking through the $4000 mark. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum and may still decline. [12][13] - Investment advice: Wait for a better time to buy gold as it has not stabilized yet. [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's business confidence index declined in October. The US House Speaker poured cold water on Trump's 2028 candidacy. The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. The US government shutdown continues, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index, which is expected to fluctuate. [14][15] - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar to trade in a range. [16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting economic and social development goals and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points but then declined. It may be a short - term resistance level, but there may be medium - term upward momentum. [16][17] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices. [17] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - OpenAI reached an agreement to transform into a for - profit organization, with Microsoft holding 27% of the shares. The US private sector's average new jobs in the past four weeks were about 14,250. The market is turning cautious before the interest rate meeting, but tech giants' capital expansion supports the index. [18][19] - Investment advice: Be bullish on US stocks with a bias towards a long - position strategy. [19] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 4753 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be slightly weak in the short term, but there will be better buying opportunities. In November, with weak fundamentals and expected central bank actions, broad - based monetary policy may drive the bond market. [20] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on treasury bond futures at low prices. [21] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7 million tons. Affected by the expected Sino - US agreement, CBOT soybean prices rose, driving up the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal prices in China. [22] - Investment advice: Monitor Sino - US leaders' meetings and China's actual purchases of US soybeans as soybean meal prices follow the external market and import costs. [22] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan is facing a sugar crisis, and the government is accused of yielding to sugar mills. Brazil's increased corn - ethanol production has pressured sugar prices. India announced an 11 - month sugar domestic sales quota of 2 million tons. Rumors of China's control over syrup and premixed powder imports may benefit the domestic sugar market. [23][25][27] - Investment advice: The rumors are positive for Zhengzhou sugar in the short term. The price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant policies at the national sugar conference. [28] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Shennong Group's full - cost in September was 12.5 yuan/kg. Market sentiment for secondary fattening has increased, driving up prices slightly. However, due to insufficient capacity reduction and speculative demand, the supply - surplus situation remains. [29][31] - Investment advice: Short - sell near - month contracts on rebounds and focus on the LH2603 contract. Consider reverse - spread opportunities. [31] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market has weakened. The futures price of the main contract has declined. The supply is in the normal drying period, and the demand is weak. [31][32] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas. [32] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable on the 28th. With the end of the railway maintenance, port inventories may accumulate. Coastal power consumption has declined seasonally, and coal prices may weaken slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] - Investment advice: Expect steam coal prices to weaken slightly in the short term but remain strong in the fourth quarter. [33] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Onslow Iron has been operating at full capacity for three months. Iron ore prices are in a volatile range. Demand is weak, but there is still some spot buying. The price is expected to remain volatile with upward pressure. [34] - Investment advice: Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside. [34] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had varying theoretical profits on October 28. The 11 - contract CS - C spread fluctuated narrowly. The 01 - contract may see a spread repair similar to the 11 - contract. [35][36] - Investment advice: Expect a spread - repair market for the 01 - contract similar to the 11 - contract. [36] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak, with prices in ports and Northeast deep - processing plants falling, and prices in North China deep - processing plants fluctuating. Futures prices are narrowly volatile. [37] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term as short - selling has a poor risk - return ratio, and it may be too early to go long. [38] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The production schedules of major white - goods in November 2025 have decreased. Chongqing Iron and Steel has changed its controlling shareholder. The steel price is volatile, with limited upward momentum due to weakening demand and inventory pressure. [39][40][41] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading approach and be cautious about upward rebounds. [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shuangliang Energy Saving's Q3 report shows a significant reduction in losses. Polysilicon spot prices are stable, with some orders being delivered. Terminal demand has weakened since late October, but considering upstream inventory and ongoing policies, prices are expected to remain stable. [43][44] - Investment advice: Buy on dips if the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Take profits if the futures price is at a significant premium. [45] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of $33.8/ton on October 27. The LME inventory decreased, and the outer - market price rose. The domestic lead price was slightly affected, with short - term supply shortages and long - term demand uncertainties. [46] - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive - spread opportunities for the spread and be cautious in cross - border trading. [47] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium of $212.89/ton on October 27. Peru and Chile's zinc concentrate exports have changed. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic zinc market has supply and demand challenges. The zinc price may be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term. [48][49][51] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Look for medium - term positive - spread opportunities and be cautious in cross - border trading. [51] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In October, the operating rate and output of industrial silicon in Yunnan decreased. The inventory is expected to be difficult to deplete in November and may decrease in December. [52][53] - Investment advice: Buying industrial silicon at low prices may be more cost - effective. [54] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased, and an Australian investment company is involved in the strategic metals market. The macro environment supports copper prices, but high prices have affected downstream restocking. The spot price may remain at a discount. [55][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for spreads. [57] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle simplifies its business by selling a stake in Ketjen. Lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported in the short term, but further upward movement depends on supply disruptions. [58][59] - Investment advice: Use a range - trading strategy in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities when demand peaks. Take profits on the LC2511 - LC2601 reverse - spread and look for positive - spread opportunities for LC2601 against more distant contracts. [59] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased on October 28. The short - term market is affected by Sino - US relations and the interest - rate cycle. The global nickel inventory is accumulating, and the price may fluctuate within a narrow range above the cost. [60][61] - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices for allocation purposes. Speculators can consider selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [61] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. Oil prices fell, and the risk premium has declined. The impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply is uncertain. [62][63] - Investment advice: Expect crude oil prices to fluctuate in the short term and monitor geopolitical situations. [63] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran's Marjan methanol plant has restarted. Methanol prices have fallen with increased positions. The market is bearish, and the price may continue to decline. [64] - Investment advice: Hold short positions and consider adding short positions for aggressive investors. Set a profit - taking target between 2150 - 2200 yuan/ton. [65] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is stable, with some varieties showing a strengthening trend. The futures price is volatile. The market may have limited upward space due to poor supply - demand fundamentals. [66][67] - Investment advice: The pulp price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [67] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The price of caustic soda may continue to fall. [68][69] - Investment advice: Short - sell caustic soda at high prices but be cautious when chasing short positions due to the large discount in the futures price and potential demand from new alumina capacity. [69] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in the Shahe area is fluctuating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. High inventory levels are suppressing the price. [70] - Investment advice: The downward space for soda ash is limited in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal prices and new - capacity releases. [70] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market is stable. The futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. [71][72] - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the terminal demand is weak, and short - selling at the current level is risky due to potential policy impacts and the futures discount to the spot price. [72] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on October 28 was 51.73 yuan/ton, a 3.69% decline. The trading volume has increased slightly, but the price has fallen significantly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price may fluctuate widely during the compliance period. [73] - Investment advice: Expect CEA prices to fluctuate widely in the short term. [74] 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A collision accident occurred to a 13,000 TEU container ship in the Pearl River Estuary. The MSK W46 line's opening price decreased, and other shipping companies may follow suit in November. The 12 - contract price may face resistance to upward breakthroughs. [75] - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy and avoid chasing long positions at the current level. [76]