中原期货晨会纪要-20251029

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - Chemicals: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - Agricultural Products: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Sugar: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - Corn: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - Pigs: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - Eggs: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - Cotton: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - Caustic Soda: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - Alumina: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - Steel Products: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - Ferroalloys: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - Options and Finance - Stock Index Futures: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - Stock Index: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].