Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-29 01:29Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - L2601 oscillated weakly and closed at 6,985 yuan/ton. Last week, some petrochemical plants had parking and restart operations, leading to a narrow decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream开工率 of PE increased slightly, and the inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased. The cost of the oil - making process decreased slightly but the loss deepened, while the cost of the coal - making process increased significantly and the profit shrank greatly. This week, some plants are planned to stop and restart, and production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the packaging film开工率 still has room to grow. The LLDPE supply - demand improvement is not obvious, and L2601 is expected to weaken with oil prices in the short term, with technical attention on the support of the 10 - day moving average near 6,939 [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,985 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,985 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,062 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,101 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The trading volume was 220,120 lots, down 21,326 lots; the open interest was 519,487 lots, down 4,375 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 77, down 11. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 387,932 lots, down 1,640 lots; the short position was 463,503 lots, down 102 lots; the net long position was - 75,571 lots, down 1,538 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,042.17 yuan/ton, up 4.35 yuan; in East China, it was 7,175.71 yuan/ton, up 13.1 yuan. The basis was 57.17, up 43.34 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.6 US dollars per barrel, down 0.22 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 577.63 US dollars per ton, down 3.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 756 US dollars per ton, down 15 US dollars; in Northeast Asia, it was 766 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE开工率 was 81.46%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly开工率 of PE packaging film was 52.59%, up 0.4 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of PE pipes was 32.33%, up 0.33 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of PE agricultural film was 47.11%, up 4.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.48%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.99%, down 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 10.2%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 17th to 23rd, China's total polyethylene production was 648,100 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period. The average开工率 of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.8% compared with the previous period. As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 514,600 tons, a decrease of 2.81% from the previous week. As of October 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous week. From October 18th to 24th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.42% to 7,137 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 44.43 yuan/ton to - 125.14 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 4.02% to 6,769 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 301.85 yuan/ton to 192.29 yuan/ton [2].