资讯早班车-2025-10-29-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, achieve key technological breakthroughs, boost consumption, and improve the capital market [2][17] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market, and study and reserve new policy measures [2][19] - The development trends of various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture show different characteristics, including price changes, production changes, and trade situations [5][10][13] - The bond market shows mixed trends, with different performances in yields and prices of various bonds, and different views on the impact of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading [25][31] - The stock market has a volatile trend, with A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showing different performances, and the regulatory authorities plan to promote the reform of the capital market [35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but higher than 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Other macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, etc. also showed different changes [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to develop strategic emerging industries and achieve technological breakthroughs [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and consolidate the capital market [2] - Regarding the EU - China trade negotiation on rare earths, China hopes for dialogue and a non - discriminatory business environment [3] - On October 28, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 28 had negative basis [3] - A large - scale transaction in the interest rate market may indicate a change in the trend and the end of the Fed's QT policy [4] 3.2.2 Metals - The tungsten market has resumed its upward trend, with prices of black tungsten concentrate, APT, and tungsten powder rising [5] - As of October 27, the inventories of zinc, lead, copper, etc. in the London Metal Exchange showed different changes [5] - On October 27, the world's largest gold ETF had a net capital outflow of $1 billion [6] - The Bank of Korea is considering buying gold for the first time since 2013 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Qingshan Steel plans to cut production by over 300,000 tons from November 2025 to January 2026 [7][8] - The US and Japan reached an agreement on ensuring the supply of key minerals and rare earths [8] - Indonesia issued a copper concentrate export license to Amman Mining [9] - The use of coal has reached a record high [9] - Vale is satisfied with its copper mining results [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The Xinjiang Jimsar shale oil demonstration area has an annual output exceeding 1.5 million tons for the first time [10] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Russia's natural gas exports to Europe decreased significantly [10] - The IEA predicts that LNG prices may decline in the next 5 years [10] - Indian refiners have suspended new orders for Russian oil [11] - Saudi Aramco expects daily oil demand growth of 1.1 - 1.4 million barrels next year and plans to invest nearly $2 billion in digital companies in the next three years [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China's grain is expected to have a good harvest this year, and the supply of "vegetable basket" products is sufficient [13] - Peruvian coffee beans will participate in the 8th CIIE [13] - Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [13] - Japan promised to buy $8 billion of soybeans and other commodities from the US [13] - As of October 26, the EU's soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 season decreased compared with the same period last year [13] - Brazil's soybean meal exports in October are expected to be 2.08 million tons [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has set various economic and social development goals and measures [17][18][19] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial supervision [19] - China and ASEAN signed an upgrade protocol for the FTA [19] - China hopes to resolve Sino - EU trade differences through dialogue [20] - China is committed to opening up the financial sector [20] - FAB will become the second RMB clearing bank in the UAE [20] - In 2024, Guangdong had the highest number of births and the largest population increase [21] - A Shanghai financial court made a judgment in a bond false statement case [21] - China's real estate industry is undergoing anti - corruption and rectification [22] - The US Senate failed to pass a bill to end the government shutdown [22] - Some bonds were suspended, and some companies had new borrowings or won land bids [23] - Some companies' credit ratings were adjusted [24] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The long - term bond yields in the Chinese bond market rebounded slightly, and treasury bond futures rose [25] - The bond prices in the exchange market showed different trends [25] - The convertible bond index declined [26] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends [26][27] - The yields of some financial bonds were determined [27] - European and US bond yields showed different trends [28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate also rose [29] - The US dollar index declined, and non - US currencies showed different trends [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the current term spread has limited upward space [31] - CITIC Securities believes that the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading is to cooperate with fiscal policy, and the bond market may decline in the short term [31] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that the bond market is likely to react once, and the central bank's treasury bond trading may be normalized [31] - Changjiang Fixed Income believes that the central bank cares about liquidity, and the cross - month capital may be stable with some fluctuations [32] - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the central bank's treasury bond trading may reduce the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut and benefit the bond market [32] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the central bank's treasury bond trading may have a short - term positive impact on the bond market [32] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On October 29, 234 bonds were listed, 119 bonds were issued, 124 bonds were paid, and 198 bonds were redeemed [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - The CSRC will promote the reform of the capital market and strengthen the fight against cross - border illegal activities [35] - The first batch of newly registered enterprises in the Sci - tech Innovation Growth Layer was listed, and the SSE will support more high - tech fields [35] - A - shares fluctuated and closed down, with military stocks rising and some sectors falling [35] - The top ten heavy - holding stocks of public funds in Q3 2025 were released, with some changes compared with Q2 [35][36] - The Hong Kong stock market closed down, with southbound funds having a net purchase of HK$2.258 billion [36]