有色金属日报-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the tight supply of copper raw materials, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai copper contract is 87,000 - 88,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,150 US dollars/ton [3]. - After the production suspension at the Mozal aluminum plant and the production cut at the Grundartangi aluminum plant, combined with low domestic inventories and improved global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 21,120 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,860 - 2,920 US dollars/ton [5]. - With the depletion of lead ore inventory, increased smelting start - up rate, and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - Zinc ore inventory is slightly increasing, and smelting profits are declining. With high structural risks in LME zinc and positive market sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement in peak - season demand, tin prices may remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough [16]. - After the continuous rise of lithium prices, there is a fear of high prices. Attention should be paid to supply elasticity and hedging pressure. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19]. - Alumina has over - capacity and continuous inventory accumulation, but with the improvement in Sino - US relations and expected loose monetary policy, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless steel has weak demand support and declining raw material prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - With the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, strong cost support, and tight supply, the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The LME copper 3M contract rose 0.26% to 11,029 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 87,910 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,400 to 134,575 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts slightly increased to 36,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount to the futures, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved slightly. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Due to the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai copper contract is 87,000 - 88,600 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,150 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: The LME aluminum rose 0.54% to 2,894 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 24,000 to 612,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 66,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The spot in East China was at a discount to the futures, and the downstream procurement willingness was still weak. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 4,000 to 466,000 tons [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the production suspension at the Mozal aluminum plant and the production cut at the Grundartangi aluminum plant, combined with low domestic inventories and improved global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 21,120 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,860 - 2,920 US dollars/ton [5]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.92% to 17,360 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 4 to 2,013.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 23,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 25,300 tons [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With the depletion of lead ore inventory, increased smelting start - up rate, and positive market sentiment, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.23% to 22,318 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 3 to 3,035.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,270 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 68,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 163,500 tons [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc ore inventory is slightly increasing, and smelting profits are declining. With high structural risks in LME zinc and positive market sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Tin - Market Information: On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 282,780 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 43 to 5,609 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 to 2,700 tons. The 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan rose 800 to 272,300 yuan/ton. The combined start - up rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased to 29.72% [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the short term, tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the improvement in peak - season demand, tin prices may remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - Market Information: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1.50%. The spot premium of Russian nickel was flat, and that of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 150. The price of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, and the price of nickel iron was weak. The price of MHP was high [14]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary policies will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The Five - Mineral Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) rose 1.37% to 81,669 yuan. The LC2601 contract closed at 81,640 yuan, down 0.32% [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the continuous rise of lithium prices, there is a fear of high prices. Attention should be paid to supply elasticity and hedging pressure. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On October 28, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.39% to 2,829 yuan/ton. The spot in Shandong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB was 318 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 11 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 223,400 tons [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Alumina has over - capacity and continuous inventory accumulation, but with the improvement in Sino - US relations and expected loose monetary policy, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices such as high - nickel iron decreased. The futures inventory was 73,896 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,027,400 tons [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Stainless steel has weak demand support and declining raw material prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy fell 0.68% to 20,575 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position slightly increased to 23,600 lots, and the volume decreased significantly. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased to 20,850 yuan/ton, and the import ADC12 price increased by 100 to 20,470 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased to 48,300 tons [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, strong cost support, and tight supply, the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong support [28].