尿素：现货成交转弱，压力缓步增加

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - As the urea price in mainstream regions rises by 40 - 50 yuan per ton, downstream follow - up slows down. With short - term low shipment pressure on manufacturers, current enterprise quotes are mostly stable. The agricultural market is expected to last until early November, while industrial procurement is cautious. With the increasing daily output in the urea industry, there may be no substantial export benefits in the short term. After a few days of stalemate, market prices are likely to loosen first, then pressure will shift to manufacturers, and quotes will be adjusted accordingly [2]. - In the short term, the overall spot trading of urea is marginally weakening. In terms of fundamentals, as the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, the daily output of urea will increase in early November while demand gradually weakens, so the price trend is expected to be under pressure. In terms of valuation, the futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan per ton. The lower valuation of urea will gradually decline to the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed units in northern factories as export policies become clearer [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1635 yuan/ton, the settlement price decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 2496 hands to 102,573 hands, the position of the 01 contract decreased by 8953 hands to 273,001 hands, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2318 tons to 2970 tons, and the trading volume decreased by 94.68 million yuan to 335.42 million yuan. The basis in Shandong region increased by 5 to - 25, the basis of Fengxi - disk increased by 5 to - 135, the basis of Dongguang - disk increased by 5 to - 25, and the spread between UR01 - UR05 remained unchanged at - 73 [1]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of most urea manufacturers remained stable, except that the price of Jiangsu Linggu increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1650 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong region remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton, while that in Shanxi region decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1480 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 79.06%, and the daily output increased by 1500 tons to 184,960 tons [1]. [Industry News] - The follow - up of downstream users slows down as urea prices rise. With the increasing daily output of the urea industry, there may be no substantial export benefits in the short term. After a few days of stalemate, market prices are likely to loosen first, then pressure will shift to manufacturers, and quotes will be adjusted accordingly [2]. - In the short term, the overall spot trading of urea is marginally weakening. The daily output of urea will increase in early November while demand gradually weakens, so the price trend is expected to be under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton, and the lower valuation of urea will gradually decline to the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed units in northern factories as export policies become clearer [2][3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].