国泰君安期货所长早读-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggestions offer important policy signals, including promoting high - quality economic development, improving the investment and financing functions of the capital market, accelerating the construction of a financial power, consolidating the foundation of the real economy, promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, building a strong domestic market, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [8]. - The copper market is expected to remain firm. Macro factors and production disruptions may change the supply - demand pattern, and new industries are expected to drive long - term demand. The trading strategy is to buy on dips or take long positions [10]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term and a downward - trending price center in the medium - term due to the weak performance of butadiene [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Suggestions - The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions aim to promote high - quality economic development, enhance scientific and technological self - reliance, develop direct financing, build a financial power, and strengthen the real economy. They also focus on technological breakthroughs, consumption promotion, and government debt management [8]. 3.2 Copper - Macro and Industry News: Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will introduce economic stimulus measures. Antofagasta's Q3 copper production increased by 1% quarter - on - quarter. Indonesia may allow a copper exporter to resume exports, and Trump reversed a pollution control regulation. Anglo American's Q3 copper production rose year - on - year, but the first three quarters' output decreased [10][18][20]. - Trend: The copper price is expected to remain firm. The market risk appetite is boosted, and the supply - demand pattern may change. The demand from new industries is expected to drive long - term growth [10]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Market Situation: Butadiene is weak, driving down the valuation of cis - butadiene rubber. The short - term fundamental drive of butadiene is downward, and the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to decline in the medium - term [12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - Zinc: Continues to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [21][23]. - Lead: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is neutral [24]. - Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum continues to oscillate, alumina has a short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength is neutral [26][27]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: Nickel price has a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory and nickel ore concerns. Stainless steel has limited downward space and lacks upward drive. The trend strength is neutral [28][30]. - Lithium Carbonate: Runs strongly with high - level spot bidding. The trend strength is slightly positive [31][34]. - Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has obvious bottom support with warehouse receipt reduction. Polysilicon market sentiment cools, and there is a risk of decline. The trend strengths are 1 and - 1 respectively [35][36][38]. - Iron Ore: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [39][40]. - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro sentiment, the steel price has a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [40][41][45]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicate: Have a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [46][48]. - Coke, Coking Coal: Coke has a strong - trending oscillation, and coking coal is supported by fundamentals with a strong - trending oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [49][50][51]. - Log: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [52][55]. - Para - Xylene, PTA, MEG: Para - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, PTA's valuation drops with the oil price decline, and MEG has a short - term oscillation. The trend strength is neutral [56][61]. - Rubber: Oscillates. No specific trend strength is mentioned [63].