中泰期货晨会纪要-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short positions in synthetic rubber, alumina, etc.; oscillating short - biased positions in liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures, apple, etc.; oscillating long - biased positions in some products; and trend long positions in none. Based on quantitative indicators, there are short - biased positions in sugar, hot - rolled coils, etc.; oscillating positions in Shanghai silver, palm oil, etc.; and long - biased positions in rebar, asphalt, etc. [2] - For the stock market, A - shares showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to develop strategic emerging industries, and the easing of Sino - US relations may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] - For the bond market, as the implementation of increased monetary policy is approaching, bonds still have upward momentum. [9] - For the black market, steel and ore may continue to rebound in the short term but with limited space, and remain oscillating in the medium term; coking coal and coke may run strongly in the short term but are restricted by potential negative feedback risks; ferroalloys are still recommended to be short - biased on rallies in the medium term. [10][11][12] - For the non - ferrous and new materials market, it is advisable to wait and see for aluminum, short on rallies for alumina, hold short positions for zinc, and expect lithium carbonate to run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] - For the agricultural products market, it is advisable to short on rallies for cotton, short - roll or wait and see for sugar, operate in an oscillating manner for eggs, expect apples to run strongly, be short - biased for near - term corn contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts, wait and see for jujubes, and short near - term contracts for live pigs. [22][24][25][27][29][30] - For the energy and chemical market, crude oil is likely to fall, fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices, plastics will run weakly, rubber will oscillate, methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears, caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset, the polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased, LPG may weaken relative to crude oil, paper pulp can be long - biased on dips, logs will be under pressure, urea will run weakly, and synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, aiming for economic growth in a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and breaking through key core technologies. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths. China will expand financial opening - up. The US Senate fails to pass a bill to end the government shutdown. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. ADP will launch weekly employment data. The Bank of Korea may buy gold. [4][5][6] Stock Index Futures - A - shares rise and then fall. The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of emerging industries. Sino - US talks may boost risk appetite. The market expects an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - After the tax period, the capital market eases. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Bonds still have upward momentum. [9] Steel and Ore - Policy is favorable to market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to Sino - US relations; in the medium term, focus on the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for coils is okay. Iron - making output remains high, and steel mills' profits are low. Steel prices may rebound in the short term but with limited space and remain oscillating in the medium term. [10] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may run strongly in the short term, but are affected by mine inspections and downstream iron - making output. Supply may shrink in the short term, and demand supports prices, but potential negative feedback risks from weakening steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits will restrict the rebound height. [11] Ferroalloys - The over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the medium term. It is recommended to be short - biased on rallies. The volatility is low, and it may run in a narrow range. [12] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash oscillates, and glass is relatively strong. It is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply returns to a high level, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass prices are stable, and mid - stream inventory needs to be digested. [14] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see as it may follow the upward trend. For alumina, short on rallies due to over - supply. For zinc, hold short positions as domestic inventory increases. Lithium carbonate will run strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon will run in a narrow range. [16][18][19] Agricultural Products - For cotton, short on rallies due to increasing supply and weak demand. For sugar, short - roll or wait and see because of global over - supply. For eggs, operate in an oscillating manner as the "de - capacity" process starts but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. Apples will run strongly. For corn, be short - biased for near - term contracts and long - biased for far - term contracts. Wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short near - term contracts as supply and demand are in a stalemate. [22][24][25][27][29][30] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is likely to fall due to over - supply. Fuel oil and asphalt will follow oil prices. Plastics will run weakly. Rubber will oscillate. Methanol is recommended to be long - biased in small amounts after a rebound drive appears. Caustic soda will be treated with an oscillating mindset. The polyester industry chain can be short - term long - biased. LPG may weaken relative to crude oil. Paper pulp can be long - biased on dips. Logs will be under pressure. Urea will run weakly. Synthetic rubber will be short - biased in the short term. [32][33][34][37][41][43]