宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年10月29日）-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, so there is no strong need for an immediate full - scale interest rate cut, resulting in limited upward momentum for Treasury bond futures. Overall, the short - term upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and closed higher. Macroscopically, due to persistent insufficient effective domestic demand, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the long run to stabilize the demand side, strongly supporting Treasury bond futures. However, the internal economic data is resilient, and external uncertainties have eased, reducing the short - term necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut and limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, the upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].