格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to factors such as the decline of palm oil and weak international crude oil, and sufficient domestic oil supply, palm oil should hold short - positions, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. - For double - meal products, with the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports, rising import costs, and low domestic rapeseed raw material inventory, double - meal continues to rebound. Hold existing long - positions, do not chase new long - positions, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Market Review - On October 28, affected by palm oil, the overall vegetable oil market weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8,182 yuan/ton, down 0.63% day - on - day; the main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8,958 yuan/ton, down 1.56% day - on - day; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9,730 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices fell about 2% on October 28. - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to about 56 million tons. - Brazil may not increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026. - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period in September. - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.631 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.90% [1][2]. Market Logic - Internationally, weak crude oil weakens the biodiesel concept, and the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports to China leads to the liquidation of the previous buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage, pressuring US soybean oil. Indonesia's increased palm oil production and Malaysia's poor export data cause palm oil to fall. Domestically, sufficient oil supply, rising inventory, and a decline in palm oil drag down the overall vegetable oil market [2]. Trading Strategy - In the single - side trading, hold short - positions in palm oil, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil will fluctuate. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Review - On October 28, supported by low rapeseed inventory and rising external costs, double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2,975 yuan/ton, up 1.47% day - on - day; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2,396 yuan/ton, up 2.61% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Last week, the US did not export soybeans to China. - As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state reached more than 60.05% of the expected area. - China's soybean imports in September reached 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8%. - Trump's administration may announce a 15 - billion - dollar plan to rescue US farmers. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons by the end of October. - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 7.912 million tons, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.052 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% [2][3]. Market Logic - Internationally, the optimistic expectation of US soybean exports continues to rise. Domestically, soybean meal inventory has exceeded one million tons, and the domestic rapeseed raw material inventory has dropped to zero, causing the rapeseed meal market to rise [3]. Trading Strategy - In single - side trading, be cautious with short - term long - positions, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long - term. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [3].