国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251029

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - News: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - News: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - Fundamentals: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - Fundamentals: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - News: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - Fundamentals: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - Fundamentals: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - Market Information: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - Trend Intensity: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - Fundamentals: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].