国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel: The accumulation of smelting inventory and concerns about nickel ore are in a game, leading to a narrow - range oscillation of nickel prices [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is limited downward potential, but there is a lack of upward driving force [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The spot bidding price is at a high level, showing a strong - running trend [2][7]. - Industrial silicon: With the reduction of warehouse receipts, there is an obvious bottom support [2][11]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a risk of a price decline [2][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,560 yuan, down 1,840 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 156,296 lots, an increase of 26,763 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,750 yuan, down 65 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 131,733 lots, a decrease of 80,991 lots compared to T - 1 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel due to violations. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued a ministerial order regarding the approval process of the RKAB. Trump claimed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,800 yuan, down 320 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 64,993 lots, a decrease of 4,495 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 81,640 yuan, down 260 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 729,307 lots, an increase of 214,852 lots compared to T - 1 [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Some car brands announced New - Year - crossing purchase - tax subsidy plans. A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining obtained a mining license for a lithium mine in Hunan, which is expected to produce 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2601 contract for industrial silicon was 8,965 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan compared to T - 1, with a trading volume of 198,198 lots, an increase of 10,934 lots compared to T - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract for polysilicon was 54,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,195 yuan compared to T - 1, and the trading volume was 238,898 lots, an increase of 69,856 lots compared to T - 1 [12]. - Macro and Industry News: In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [14].