金融期货早班车-20251029

Market Performance - On October 28, the four major A-share stock indices adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3988.22 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.44% to close at 13430.1 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.15% to close at 3229.58 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.84% to close at 1471.73 points. The market turnover was 2.1653 trillion yuan, a decrease of 191.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+0.08%), electronics (-0.37%), and comprehensive (+2.06%) led the gains; media (-0.44%), food and beverage (-0.01%), and real estate (-0.23%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IC>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2362/170/2904 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -15.4 billion, -18.7 billion, 3 billion, and 31.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -15.7 billion, -10.8 billion, +3.4 billion, and +23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On October 28, the bond market continued to rebound. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.08%, TF rose 0.15%, T rose 0.25%, and TL rose 0.55% [3]. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 143.62, 110.03, 22.37, and -1.18 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -12.31%, -9.61%, -3.06%, and 0.25%. The three - year historical quantiles were 26%, 20%, 30%, and 48% respectively [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of -4bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.52%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of -3.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.047, and an IRR of 1.9%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -3.5bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.047, and an IRR of 1.91%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, with a yield change of -3.75bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.038, and an IRR of 1.78% [4]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 475.3 billion yuan and withdrew 159.5 billion yuan through open - market operations, resulting in a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [4]. - In the short term, it is bullish as the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading releases a positive signal. In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, the prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods, while the manufacturing prosperity is good [11].