Group 1: Energy - International oil prices fell overnight, with Brent's December contract down 1.96%. Considering geopolitical games, the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, and OPEC+ production increases, the upside for oil price rebounds is limited. A strategy combining short positions in crude oil and out - of - the - money call options is recommended [2] - Precious metals continued to decline overnight. With the easing of trade tensions and the upcoming meeting on a cease - fire plan, short - term safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Wait patiently for stabilization before participation, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Group 2: Base Metals - Copper prices showed resilience overnight. Supply disruptions and a high gold - to - copper ratio support copper prices. There is still potential in the volume and price of Shanghai copper. Pay attention to the callback range and buy on dips [4] - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly overnight. Short - term macro - positive sentiment dominates, but the fundamental resonance is limited. Be cautious about the upside [5] - For cast aluminum alloy, scrap aluminum sources are tight, and tax policy adjustment expectations increase costs. However, with high industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts, it follows aluminum prices and has no independent market [6] - Alumina has a high operating capacity and rising inventory. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is mainly in a weak operation [7] - Zinc smelters in China are actively operating, and as winter storage approaches, TC for both domestic and foreign mines has decreased. The opening of the spot export window and low LME inventories support its strong performance, pulling up the Shanghai zinc market. It is expected to fluctuate between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8] - The demand for lead has weakened as downstream battery enterprises are less accepting of high prices. The fundamentals of lead are turning weak. Long - position holders should exit on rallies [9] - Nickel prices are in a weak operation. The nickel industry chain is constrained by over - supply, and downstream demand is cautious. The price center is likely to move down [10] - Tin prices oscillated higher overnight. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - disturbing factors have eased. Tin prices follow copper prices, and a small short position can be tentatively established [11] Group 3: Industrial Metals and Alloys - The price of lithium carbonate pulled back after rising. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of actual inventory and policy increments [12] - After the release of positive factors for polysilicon listed companies, the upward momentum on the disk is under pressure. There is a risk of a callback in the short term without new policy support [13] - Industrial silicon futures fell slightly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, but there are expectations of supply improvement in November. The disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [14] Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is improving, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is rising. However, the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industry chain remains. The price rebound is restricted by weak demand expectations [15] - Iron ore prices rebounded overnight. The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] Group 5: Coal - Related Products - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, but coking profits are average. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [17] - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Although there is a short - term impact on hot - metal production, the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant. The price may be more likely to rise than fall [18] - Manganese silicon prices oscillated. The demand is affected by the possible decline in hot - metal production. The price follows the trend of steel [19] - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The overall demand is acceptable, and the price follows the trend of steel [20] Group 6: Shipping - The spot market quotes for the container shipping index (European line) have been lowered, suppressing market sentiment. The disk may oscillate in the near term, and it is recommended to build positions on dips [21] Group 7: Fuels and Asphalt - Fuel oil prices fell overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals but may get some support from geopolitical factors and winter power - generation demand [22] - The planned production of asphalt in November is significantly lower. The "peak - season" demand is weaker than expected, and the upward space for prices is limited [23] Group 8: Liquefied Petroleum Gas and Chemicals - The price of liquefied petroleum gas has been boosted by the improvement in fundamentals, such as reduced supply and increased demand [24] - Urea prices pulled back. The supply - surplus situation persists, but there may be a phased rebound after the price drops to a low level [25] - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. The port inventory is under pressure, and the market is likely to oscillate at a low level [26] - Pure benzene prices continued to fall overnight. The mid - term pressure comes from high imports. A reverse - spread strategy on the monthly spread is recommended [27] - Styrene prices are under long - term pressure due to high inventory in the industry chain [28] - The supply pressure of polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene is difficult to ease. The impact on prices is limited [29] - PVC prices fluctuate narrowly. The fundamentals are weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range. Caustic soda prices continue to weaken, and the supply pressure is high [30] - PX and PTA prices fell slightly. The supply pressure is large, and a reverse - spread strategy is recommended in the medium term [31] - Ethylene glycol production is increasing. There is a mid - term inventory - accumulation expectation. Short positions can be established on price increases [32] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost. Short - fiber may accumulate inventory again, and bottle - chip processing margins are under pressure [33] Group 9: Building Materials - Glass prices rose slightly. The spot market in Shahe shows marginal improvement. The price decline is expected to be limited at present [34] - For natural rubber and its derivatives, demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is large. Market sentiment is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [35] - Soda ash costs are rising, and supply is increasing slightly. A high - short strategy is recommended after a price rebound [36] Group 10: Agricultural Products - US soybeans and domestic soybean meal prices rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions. Wait and see for now and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [37] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by trade expectations and supply - demand factors. In the long term, it is recommended to go long on vegetable oils on dips [38] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are affected by factors such as Sino - Australian relations and Russian exports. Rapeseed meal prices may rebound in the short term, while rapeseed oil prices are under pressure [39] - Soybean No. 1 prices rose rapidly from a low level. Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic policies [40] - Corn prices are under pressure due to the continuous supply of new grain. Dalian corn may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [41] - Live - hog futures prices weakened significantly, while spot prices rose. After the price rebound, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [42] - Egg prices failed to continue rising. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [43] - Cotton prices are supported by the increase in new - cotton costs. The short - term price increase is a rebound with limited space. Wait and see for now [44] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to sufficient international supply. In China, the focus is on the new - season production estimate [45] - Apple prices are relatively strong. High - quality apples have stable prices, but low - quality apples may face inventory pressure [46] - Wood prices are weak. Low inventory provides strong support. Wait and see for now [47] - Pulp prices may oscillate in a bottom - range. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average [48] Group 11: Financial Products - A - share stocks oscillated and sorted. The macro - level uncertainty is reduced, but funds are still cautious. Focus on technology - growth sectors for asset allocation [49] - Treasury futures rose across the board. The Fed's policy direction is uncertain, and the domestic bond market is in a repair stage [50]
综合晨报-20251029
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-29 02:24