油脂：情绪仍偏空，或继续震荡偏弱，蛋白粕：现货提价盘面跟涨，榨利修复或抑制盘面涨幅

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, individual product outlooks are given as follows: - Oils and Fats: Expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all showing a weak - fluctuating trend [1][2][6] - Protein Meal: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the 1 - 5 inverse spread of soybean meal is temporarily held, with double - buying of options [7] - Corn/Starch: Expected to fluctuate, with short - term short positions held and attention paid to the stop - profit rhythm [9][10] - Pigs: Expected to fluctuate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention paid to inverse spread strategy opportunities [11] - Natural Rubber: Expected to fluctuate and find the bottom [12][13] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14][15] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15] - Sugar: Expected to rebound in the short term but remain bearish in the long - term, with a recommendation to short on rebounds [16] - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate, with a preference for waiting and seeing [16][17] - Offset Printing Paper: Expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with a single - side strategy of waiting and seeing [17] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [19][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, pigs, natural and synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset printing paper, and logs. It considers factors such as macro - environment, industry supply and demand, and trade relations to provide short - term and long - term outlooks for each product, along with corresponding investment strategies [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: The sentiment is still bearish, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1][6] - Logic: Macro - environment includes the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiation consensus, expected Fed rate cut, uncertain sanctions on Russia, and expected OPEC+ production increase. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete with a high probability of yield reduction, Brazilian soybean planting progress is 34.4% as of October 25, domestic soybean imports are at a relatively high level, and domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is slow. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to stop falling and rise [1][6] - Outlook: Palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil are all expected to fluctuate weakly [2][6] 3.2 Protein Meal - View: The spot price increases, and the futures price follows, but the repair of crushing profit may suppress the futures price increase [6][7] - Logic: Internationally, Sino - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new - crop is on the market, and Brazilian soybean old - crop exports in October are increased. Domestically, in the short term, crushing profit is gradually repaired, and the spot price is raised. In the medium term, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases, origin weather, and downstream replenishment. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in Q4 2025, with a possible small shortage in Q1 2026 [7] - Outlook: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the 1 - 5 inverse spread of soybean meal is temporarily held, with double - buying of options [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - View: The number of trucks arriving in North China has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded slightly [9] - Logic: The short - term rebound is due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned grain depots. However, there are still downward drivers, such as high yield in Northeast China, potential low - quality grain pressure in North China, and insufficient upward price drivers in the sales area [10] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate, with short - term short positions held and attention paid to the stop - profit rhythm [10] 3.4 Pigs - View: The second - fattening inventory is postponed, and the market sentiment is cautious [11] - Logic: In terms of supply, in the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens increases, and the supply pressure in late October is relieved. In the medium term, the supply in Q4 is abundant. In the long term, sow production reduction is expected to accelerate in Q4 2025, and the supply pressure will be relieved in H2 2026. In terms of demand, it is the off - season, and the ratio of meat to pig price is falling. In terms of inventory, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens increases [11] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention paid to inverse spread strategy opportunities [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: The futures market sentiment is okay, and attention should be paid to the origin situation [12] - Logic: It is currently a short - term oversold rebound. For RU, the negative impact of the previous reserve release is digested, and the slow registration of warehouse receipts is the focus of long - position trading. For NR, there is still an expectation of increased supply. The supply pressure is not large for now, and the demand is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in trading volume [13] - Outlook: Due to high macro - uncertainty, it is expected to fluctuate and find the bottom [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The raw material support is weak, and the futures market has weakened significantly [14] - Logic: The decline in the BR futures price is mainly due to the sharp drop in the price of raw material butadiene. High production this year is a major pressure, and although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The butadiene price has been weak recently [15] - Outlook: The fundamental pressure is large, and the raw material is hard to improve. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a possibility of hitting a new low this year [15] 3.7 Cotton - View: The reduction in production and increase in cost strongly support the cotton price [15] - Logic: In the acquisition, the acquisition cost in Northern Xinjiang is fixed, and the acquisition price in Southern Xinjiang is rising. In the inspection, the national inspection volume is 144.07 million tons as of October 27. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is in the accumulation stage. Macro - factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations may affect the cotton price. The upper pressure is around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is around 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton [15] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15] 3.8 Sugar - View: The expected reduction in imports leads to the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar [16] - Logic: Internationally, the new sugar - making seasons in the Northern Hemisphere are coming, and major producers are expected to increase production. Brazil's sugar production has passed the peak, and the international sugar supply is relatively loose. In China, sugar imports in September decreased, and the new sugar has not entered the concentrated crushing period. The market is trading on the expectation of a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports [16] - Outlook: It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain bearish in the long - term, with a recommendation to short on rebounds [16] 3.9 Pulp - View: The financial trading atmosphere drives the increase in pulp futures, but the futures - spot divergence remains [16][17] - Logic: Fundamentally, the recent data is bearish. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in excess supply. The futures price is close to some spot prices, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium [17] - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate, with a preference for waiting and seeing [17] 3.10 Offset Printing Paper - View: It runs in a narrow - range fluctuation [17] - Logic: The supply pressure exists due to stable production of large - scale paper mills and new production capacity in South China. Dealers have shipment pressure, and downstream printing factories have few new orders. The cost support from the upstream wood pulp is weak. Although publishers in the North are starting to bid, the market expectation is pessimistic [17] - Outlook: A single - side strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended, and attention should be paid to new driving factors [17] 3.11 Logs - View: There is no bullish driver, and it fluctuates at the bottom [19][20][21] - Logic: Recently, the futures price has fallen and remained low. The short - term market is affected by the possible cancellation of special port fees and the weakening fundamentals, including concentrated port arrivals, decreased sales of laminated wood, and high inventory. The market sentiment is bearish [20][21] - Outlook: The fundamentals are weakening, and the spot price may fall. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [21]