十五五规划建议出炉，稳增长预期提振基本金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal boosts the expectation of stable growth, and the improvement of macro - expectations and supply - side disturbances drive the prices of basic metals. In the short and medium term, copper leads the rise of basic metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise due to potential policy stimulus and supply disturbances [1]. - For different metals, copper is expected to be volatile and strong; alumina is expected to be volatile; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term; zinc is expected to be volatile with a downward trend in the long term; lead is expected to be volatile and strong; nickel is expected to be volatile in the short term; stainless steel is expected to be range - bound; tin is expected to be volatile and strong [6][10][13][16][18][21][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Outlook Copper - Viewpoint: The resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations makes copper prices trend strong. The macro - sentiment recovers and the trade tensions ease, and the risk appetite of the market increases. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the production of electrolytic copper decreases. The terminal demand is in the peak season, but the inventory reduction is not obvious, and the high price restricts the demand [6][7][8]. - Outlook: Volatile and strong [6][7][8]. Alumina - Viewpoint: The fundamental pressure still exists, but the valuation enters the low - range. The high - cost production capacity has a certain degree of reduction, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The ore price is slightly loose, and the price is under pressure. However, more funds are starting to focus on this variety, and the price fluctuation may increase [10]. - Outlook: Volatile [9][10]. Aluminum - Viewpoint: The macro - sentiment is repeated, and the aluminum price fluctuates narrowly. Overseas, there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the 15th Five - Year Plan in China gives positive policy signals. The domestic replacement production capacity is gradually put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the terminal demand is stable, and the inventory reduction slows down [12][13]. - Outlook: Volatile and strong in the short term, and the price center may rise in the medium term [11][12][13]. Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: The warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply - side policy is unclear, and the demand falls short of expectations, resulting in a small reduction in production of some enterprises. The demand has marginal improvement, and the inventory and warehouse receipts continue to rise [14]. - Outlook: Volatile at a high level in the short term and volatile in the medium term [14]. Zinc - Viewpoint: The macro - optimistic expectation is gradually alleviated. The Sino - US economic and trade relations show a signal of relaxation, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelters' profitability is good and the production willingness is strong. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is generally expected [16]. - Outlook: Volatile, with a downward trend in the long term [15][16]. Lead - Viewpoint: The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 is still high, and the lead price may remain volatile and strong. The spot premium slightly decreases, and the supply is slightly less than expected after the holidays. The demand is in the peak season, and the cost is high. The virtual - to - real ratio of SHFE lead 2512 increases significantly [17][18]. - Outlook: Volatile and strong [17][18]. Nickel - Viewpoint: The LME nickel inventory exceeds 250,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuates. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weak. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, the production of intermediate products recovers, the price of nickel salts slightly weakens, and the inventory accumulates significantly [18][21]. - Outlook: Volatile in the short term [21]. Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The price of nickel iron continues to fall, and the stainless - steel market is weak. The price of nickel iron weakens, and the production of stainless steel increases in September. The social inventory and warehouse receipts decrease slightly, and the structural over - supply pressure may appear again after the peak season [22]. - Outlook: Range - bound in the short term [22][23]. Tin - Viewpoint: The SHFE tin inventory slightly declines, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. The supply of tin is restricted, the production in Wa State may be postponed, and the supply in Indonesia is expected to be tight. The processing fee of tin concentrates will remain low. The operating rate of refined tin increases, and the inventory reduction slows down [23][24]. - Outlook: Volatile and strong [23][24]. 3.2. Market Monitoring - Copper: In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 50,500 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.31%, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production increased by 1.0955 million tons, an increase of 12.22%. As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country increased by 2,900 tons to 184,500 tons [7]. - Alumina: On October 28, the spot price of alumina in some regions was stable or slightly decreased. An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased alumina at a price of 3,040 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton lower than the previous period. The alumina warehouse receipts were 223,372 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8][9]. - Aluminum: On October 28, the SMM AOO average price was 21,160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China increased by 8,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 100 tons [12]. - Aluminum Alloy: On October 28, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The factory - to - factory price of Baotai ADC12 - A00 was - 460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 48,836 tons, an increase of 118 tons from the previous day [14][15]. - Zinc: On October 28, the spot price of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin was at a discount to the main contract. As of October 28, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last Thursday [15]. - Lead: On October 28, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 lead ingot price was 17,150 - 17,300 yuan, with an average price of 17,225 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,600 tons compared with last Thursday [17]. - Nickel: On October 28, the LME nickel inventory was 251,436 tons, an increase of 198 tons from the previous day; the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 31,385 tons, an increase of 1,605 tons from the previous day [18]. - Stainless Steel: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 73,896 tons, unchanged from the previous day. On October 28, the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 200 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract [22]. - Tin: On October 28, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,700 tons; the SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 43 tons to 5,609 tons; the SHFE tin position decreased by 5,465 lots to 70,911 lots. The average price of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 284,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On October 28, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2242.59, a decrease of 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, a decrease of 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, a decrease of 0.64%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2480.06, with a daily decline of 1.17%, a 5 - day increase of 1.04%, a 1 - month increase of 3.98%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.44% [149][151].