期货市场交易指引：2025年10月29日-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - Treasury Bonds: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - Double Coking: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - Rebar: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - Aluminum: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - Nickel: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - Tin: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - Silver and Gold: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - Styrene: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - Rubber: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - Urea: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - Methanol: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - Polyolefins: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - Soda Ash: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - PTA: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - Apples: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - Red Dates: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - Eggs: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - Corn: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - Soybean Meal: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - Oils: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]