全球宏观治理逻辑变化系列（一）：联储独立性受损如何改变宏观叙事？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is crucial for the valuation of the US dollar, serving as an important anchor for its credibility[2] - The Fed's independence has been established through historical events and legislative measures, particularly the Banking Act of 1935 and the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951[3][14] - The Fed's independence is protected in four key areas: organizational structure, decision-making processes, policy tools, and the execution of its functions without external interference[3][11][20] Group 2: Historical Interventions - Historical interventions by the White House have often occurred during fiscal expansion cycles and pre-election periods, with notable examples including the Johnson, Nixon, and Trump administrations[4][5][21] - The Trump administration's interference represents the most direct challenge to Fed independence in nearly 80 years, marked by unprecedented public criticism and controversial nominations[5][6] - Past interventions have led to significant inflation risks, with the Fed's independence being crucial for long-term market stability despite potential short-term pain[4][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Implications - A weakened Fed independence could lead to lower nominal interest rates, potentially pushing real rates into negative territory, and could undermine the stability of inflation expectations[6] - Historical patterns indicate that political pressure on the Fed often results in a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation risks, as seen during the 1970s and 1980s[6][21] - Current economic conditions, including accelerated growth and impending fiscal expansion, may further challenge the Fed's independence and lead to a decline in the dollar index over the next 3-5 years[6][21]