商品期货早班车-20251029

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the October meeting is close to 100%, but there are contradictions in the future economic outlook. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1]. - For metals, base metals have different price trends and investment advice. For example, aluminum is expected to fluctuate, while zinc is advised to be short - sold at high prices [1]. - In the black industry, steel and iron ore are recommended to hold long positions, while coking coal is advised to be on the sidelines [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and cotton have their own market characteristics and investment strategies, mainly including short - term strength, weakening, or range - bound trading [5]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products like LLDPE, PVC, and PTA have different supply - demand situations and investment suggestions, including short - term weak fluctuations and long - term short - selling strategies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell below the $3900 support. The de - dollarization logic remains, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is close to 100%. It is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy at the lower support level [1]. - Silver: The liquidity of the London silver market has eased, and the physical lease rate has dropped significantly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. Base Metals - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 1.03%. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has stable weekly aluminum product start - up rates. It is expected to fluctuate due to the general acceptance of high prices by downstream and inventory accumulation [1]. - Alumina: The price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42%. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The short - term market remains in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.16%. The supply pressure continues due to the loose mine end, and the consumption performance is average. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [1]. - Lead: The price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.86%. The supply has changed from regional tightness to general tightness, and the demand has rigid support. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2601 contract of rebar rose. The steel building material inventory decreased, and the demand is in the peak season with marginal improvement. It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - Iron Ore: The main 2601 contract of iron ore rose. The supply and demand are moderately strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - Coking Coal: The main 2601 contract of coking coal fell. The steel mill profits have deteriorated, and the supply side has inventory differentiation. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean continued to rise. The global soybean is expected to maintain a high - inventory trend. The U.S. soybean is short - term strong, and the domestic market is range - bound following the cost side [5]. - Corn: The corn futures price is weak, and the spot price fluctuates. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. - Oil: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell. The supply side has good production, and the demand side has a slight decline in exports. It is expected to be weak, and the P structure is recommended for reverse arbitrage [5]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. The Brazilian sugarcane is expected to increase in production, and the domestic sugar price may face downward pressure if the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - Cotton: The overnight U.S. cotton futures price stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic cotton price fluctuated within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - bound strategy [5]. - Egg: The egg futures and spot prices fell. The demand has increased, but the supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - Live Pig: The live pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved. The futures price is expected to repair through fluctuations [6]. - Apple: The apple futures price rose. The spot price in some regions increased, and the market sentiment is optimistic. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [6]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: The main contract of LLDPE fell slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is in the peak season. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [7]. - PVC: The V01 contract of PVC fell. The supply has increased, and the demand has slightly recovered. It is recommended to short - sell or conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - PTA: The PX supply is stable, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long term. The downstream demand is improving. It is recommended to long - buy PX and short - sell the PTA processing fee [8]. - Rubber: The RU2601 contract of rubber fluctuated within a narrow range. The raw material price rose, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Glass: The FG01 contract of glass rose. The supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended for reverse arbitrage [8]. - PP: The main contract of PP fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [8]. - MEG: The MEG supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [9]. - Styrene: The EB main contract of styrene fell slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and be short - sold at high prices in the long term [9]. - Soda Ash: The SA01 contract of soda ash remained flat. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to be on the sidelines [9].