软商品日报：国际供应预期增加，白糖短期承压-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Volatile [1] - Cotton - Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia and typhoons in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. Sugar prices are under short - term pressure [1][3] - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - External Market Quotes: On October 28, 2025, the price of US sugar was 14.39 US dollars, with a decline of 0.55%; the price of US cotton was 65.05 US dollars, with an increase of 0.62% [4] - Spot Prices: On October 28, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,750 yuan, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5,720 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The price of cotton index 328 was 3,280 yuan, a decline of 0.02%; the price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,700 yuan, an increase of 0.34% [4] - Spread: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and SR05 - 09 of sugar were 65.0, - 57.0, and - 8.0 respectively, with changes of 41.30%, 62.86%, and - 27.27%. The spreads of CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 of cotton were - 5.0, - 155.0, and 160.0 respectively, with changes of - 50.00%, - 3.12%, and - 5.88% [4] - Import Prices: On October 28, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 75.6 US dollars, unchanged [4] - Profit Margins: On October 28, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1,770.5 yuan, unchanged [4] - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 were 0.0757, 0.0751, 0.0734, and 0.0738 respectively [4] - Inventory Warrants: On October 28, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants was 7,695, a decline of 1.28%; the number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 2,471, a decline of 0.68% [2][4] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was not conducive to sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugarcane - producing areas caused sugarcane lodging. The impact on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat or slightly lower year - on - year, and there was a downward risk after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]