工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251029

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon still shows a certain increase, while the improvement in demand is limited. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures price, but considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further [1]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.11% to 8,955 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained flat at 51.50 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.27% to 54,355 yuan/ton [1]. Market Fundamentals - Supply side: In October, the southwest production area of industrial silicon is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up rate of northern silicon enterprises has increased, resulting in an overall increase in the total start - up rate. For polysilicon, although enterprises are maintaining a production reduction trend, the output is expected to increase in October [1]. - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production reduction, organic silicon enterprises are at the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices. For polysilicon, the market transaction was light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The market is in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range - bound operation [1]. - Polysilicon: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips. Existing long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Industry News - The Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced the public notice of the application situation of the stock projects of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism, with 265 distributed photovoltaic projects and a total approved (filed) capacity of 1545.47MW, among which 1502.01MW was put into operation before June 1, 2025. The Mexican Energy Ministry released the National Power System Development Plan, prioritizing renewable energy and energy storage, with expected new power generation capacity between 6.4GW and 9.55GW, 96% of which comes from solar and wind energy, and clean energy generation is expected to account for 38% of the total power generation by 2030 [1].