Hopewind(SH:603063) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-29 02:13Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily, dated October 29, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - The national autumn grain harvest in major producing areas is over 85%. The corn market harvest is nearing completion, but selling pressure remains high, pressuring prices. Futures prices are in a post - bottoming - out and retracement phase, while spot prices are in a post - stop - falling and stabilizing and fluctuating process [2] - On Tuesday, the corn futures market showed a narrow - range and slightly upward trend, supported by the rise in the outer market and the strength of soybeans. The main 01 contract rose 0.28% to close at 2123 yuan, with decreased trading volume and a slight increase in open interest. The corn starch futures market was weak, with the main 01 contract closing at 2424 yuan [2] Group 3: Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - State reserve purchase points in the Northeast region are supporting prices, limiting downward movement [6] - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] - After the peak of harvest and selling pressure, it will become more dispersed, and price pressure is expected to gradually ease [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [3] - Short - term supply pressure remains high, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] Group 4: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.75% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.40% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [3] Group 5: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - For corn, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2140 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2270 yuan (down 20 yuan), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis is 17 yuan (down 21 yuan) [3] - For corn starch, the price in Shandong is 2750 yuan (down 10 yuan), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The Shandong main - continuous basis is 326 yuan (down 9 yuan) [3] Futures Price - From October 27 to 28, 2025, corn futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07 showed price increases, with increases ranging from 0.49% - 0.59%. Corn starch futures contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09 showed price decreases, with decreases ranging from 0.04% - 0.25%. The wheat average price increased by 0.04% [4][7] Group 6: International Market Data - For US corn - related prices, the CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 431.75, up 3.75 (0.88%); the COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1093.5, up 10 (0.92%); the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 530.25, up 4.25 (0.81%). The US Gulf完税 price is 2141.89, up 13.84 (0.65%), with an import profit of 148.11; the US West完税 price is 2019.92, up 14.03 (0.7%), with an import profit of 270.08 [34]