南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251029

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No.1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 29, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - New - season soybean listing is hindered by rainfall in the southern产区, leading to a supply shortage of high - protein edible soybeans, which supports the price to rise seasonally. Meanwhile, restrained selling willingness at the grass - roots level and rigid bidirectional grain return acquisitions ease price pressure. Strong acquisition willingness in the spot market and the limited market scale lead to a fundamental shift [3]. - The selling pressure of soybeans is gradually decreasing, and the downstream has a strong willingness to acquire high - quality soybeans. The uninitiated state - reserve acquisition restricts price decline, and if it starts and purchases at a reasonable price, it may further strengthen the price [3]. - The southern产区's listing progress is gradually recovering. The resumption of US soybean imports after the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations (with uncertain time) and the possible decline in acquisition intensity after the execution of grain return orders are negative factors for the market [6]. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 contract 11 in the current month is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.02% and a historical percentile of 25.1% [2] Risk Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Planting subjects have a large demand for selling new soybeans harvested in autumn, but there is significant short - term selling pressure, which weighs on prices | Long | Take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits and short - sell | A2601 | Short | 30% | Above 4100 | | Inventory Management | During the concentrated listing period, the bargaining power of sellers weakens | Long | Sell call options to increase the grain selling price | A2511 - C - 4050 | Sell | 30% | 30 - 50 (Hold) | | Procurement Management | Concerned about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs | Short | Mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management | A2603, A2605 | Long | - | Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter | [2] Spot Price and Basis - On October 28, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 215, - 217, - 137, and - 107 [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | October 27, 2025 | October 28, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No.1 11 | 4054 | 4100 | 46 | 1.13% | | Soybean No.1 01 | 4077 | 4115 | 38 | 0.93% | | Soybean No.1 03 | 4085 | 4123 | 38 | 0.93% | | Soybean No.1 05 | 4121 | 4155 | 34 | 0.83% | | Soybean No.1 07 | 4117 | 4155 | 38 | 0.92% | | Soybean No.1 09 | 4121 | 4158 | 37 | 0.90% | [4][7]