Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term and is difficult to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - The iron ore market is currently weak in reality, with the overall market in a tug - of - war situation, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. - For the black sector, it is still not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short. The subsequent height after the rebound needs further observation [9]. - Industrial silicon is subject to real - world constraints and is likely to fluctuate with the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of relevant news [15]. - The glass futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the interweaving of long and short factors [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue the narrow - range consolidation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in device operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3058 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 22644 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.181%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3296 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8933 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly decreased, the demand improved marginally, the inventory was still at a high level, but the de - stocking process accelerated, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills has significantly declined recently, and the molten iron output has significantly decreased, reducing the supply - side pressure [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 792.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.76% (+ 6.00), and the positions changed by - 9902 lots to 54.89 million lots. The weighted positions were 92.41 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.15 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.40% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase month - on - month in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased. Overall, the iron ore price is under pressure, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.21% at 5790 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed flat at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 86 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are still supply - constraint expectations for ferroalloys. The current situation of steel mills is gradually becoming obvious, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and its potential driving force may come from the manganese ore end [8][9]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.11% (- 10). The weighted contract positions changed by - 1744 lots to 433,386 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 105 yuan/ton [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon continues, and the demand support weakens. The cost provides a bottom - support effect. It is easy to fluctuate with the commodity environment and will consolidate in the short term [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 54,355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.27% (- 145). The weighted contract positions changed by + 4813 lots to 255,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 1375 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polysilicon may be marginally alleviated. The downstream operating rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. Pay attention to the implementation of relevant news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+ 18). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 25,212 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 86,221 short positions [17]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is mainly trading low - price goods, the demand recovery is slow, and the raw - material soda ash price provides cost support. The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 7). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2798 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply of soda ash is stable, the cost pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment demand is mainly for low - price and rigid needs. The soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term [20].
黑色建材日报-20251029
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-29 02:16