国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. Each product has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors. For example, some products are in a high - level or low - level shock state, some are affected by supply - demand relationships, and others are influenced by macro - events [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - Market Conditions: PX is in a high - level shock market; PTA's valuation declines as oil prices fall; MEG is in a short - term shock market [2][4]. - Data: PX's main contract closed at 6618 yesterday, down 8; PTA's main contract closed at 4614, down 2; MEG's main contract closed at 4069, down 40 [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX prices fell today due to concerns about weak demand, while some PTA and PET producers' planned meetings may affect the market. A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, has restarted. The planned arrival volume at the main ports for MEG from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6][7]. - Suggestions: For PX, go short on PXN at high levels. For PTA, pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting, and its processing fee is expected to expand in the short term. For MEG, there may be a short - term rebound, but the height is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber - Market Conditions: Due to the weakness of butadiene, the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure [2][10]. - Data: The main contract of cis - butadiene rubber closed at 10,805 yesterday, down 190. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu's mainstream market is 7,900, down 200 [10]. - Analysis: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. It is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern of capital game in the short term, and the medium - term price center will gradually move down [11][12]. 3.3 LLDPE - Market Conditions: Mainly in a shock state [2][13]. - Data: The L2601 contract closed at 6985 yesterday, down 0.20% [13]. - Analysis: The decline in crude oil prices affects PE. The rigid demand of downstream industries supports the market, and the inventory is decreasing. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the market is in a shock situation [13][14]. 3.4 PP - Market Conditions: Stop falling in the short term and fluctuate in the medium term [2][17]. - Data: The PP2601 contract closed at 6657 yesterday, down 0.37% [17]. - Analysis: Multiple factors cause downward pressure on PP, but recent oil price rebounds and supply - side production cuts lead to a short - term rebound. In the long term, it may be in a weak - shock pattern [18]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - Market Conditions: The far - month valuation is suppressed [2][23]. - Data: The 01 - contract futures price is 2341, and the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 [23]. - Analysis: The procurement price of alumina manufacturers has been reduced, and the high - inventory and low - profit situation of the alumina industry suppresses the valuation of caustic soda. The cost of caustic soda has also decreased recently [21][22]. 3.6 Glass - Market Conditions: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][25]. - Data: The FG601 contract closed at 1113 yesterday, up 1.83% [26]. - Analysis: The domestic float - glass market price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions, and the overall sales are average [26]. 3.7 Methanol - Market Conditions: Under shock pressure [2][28]. - Data: The main contract of methanol closed at 2,241 yesterday, down 27 [29]. - Analysis: The fundamental pressure of methanol is large, but the valuation is moderately low. Affected by macro - events, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - term price center will move down [31][32]. 3.8 Urea - Market Conditions: Spot trading weakens, and pressure gradually increases [2][33]. - Data: The main contract of urea closed at 1,635 yesterday, down 5 [33]. - Analysis: As the price of urea rises, downstream follow - up slows down. In November, the daily output increases while demand weakens, and the price is under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton [34][35]. 3.9 Styrene - Market Conditions: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][36]. - Data: The styrene 2512 contract closed at 6,848 yesterday, down 95 [36]. - Analysis: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. The downstream is in a negative feedback stage, and the terminal demand has not improved. Pay attention to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [37]. 3.10 Soda Ash - Market Conditions: Little change in the spot market [2][39]. - Data: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,239 yesterday, with no change [40]. - Analysis: The domestic soda - ash market is weakly stable, the supply increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [40]. 3.11 LPG and Propylene - Market Conditions: The upward driving force of LPG is limited, and propylene is in a short - term weak - shock state due to loose supply - demand [2][42]. - Data: PG2512 of LPG closed at 4,266 yesterday, up 0.33%; PL2601 of propylene closed at 6,112, down 0.65% [42]. - Analysis: Pay attention to the cost changes of LPG. The supply - demand of propylene is loose, and the short - term trend is weak [42]. 3.12 PVC - Market Conditions: In a low - level shock state [2][51]. - Data: The 01 - contract futures price is 4716, and the spot price in East China is 4600 [49]. - Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure. The reduction - production drive is insufficient, and the export growth may slow down, so the trend is still under pressure [49]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Conditions: Fuel oil has a short - term retracement, and the fluctuation continues to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][52]. - Data: FU2511 of fuel oil closed at 2,970 yesterday, down 1.39%; LU2511 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,231, down 0.89% [52]. - Analysis: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different trends, and relevant data such as inventory and price difference are provided [52]. 3.14 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Market Conditions: In a shock - consolidation state [2][54]. - Data: The EC2512 contract closed at 1,788.3 yesterday, down 0.66%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1,548.7, down 2.44% [54]. - Analysis: The spot freight rate has an upward trend, and the supply - demand situation shows that the weekly average capacity in November increases. For the 2512 contract, consider a low - buying strategy; the 2602 contract has a stronger game nature [63][64][65]. 3.15 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - Market Conditions: Both have a short - term rebound due to positive demand feedback [2][67]. - Data: The staple - fiber 2512 contract closed at 6,250 yesterday, up 8; the bottle - chip 2512 contract closed at 5,740, down 10 [67]. - Analysis: The staple - fiber futures follow the raw materials to be strong, and the factory price of bottle chips is raised. However, the trading atmosphere of bottle chips has declined [67][68]. 3.16 Offset Printing Paper - Market Conditions: In a low - level shock state [2][70]. - Data: The OP2601.SHF contract closed at 4226 yesterday, down 6 [70]. - Analysis: The price of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable. Some paper mills issue price - increase letters, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [71][73]. 3.17 Pure Benzene - Market Conditions: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][74]. - Data: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5495 yesterday, down 74 [74]. - Analysis: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Pay attention to the changes in port inventory [74].