“?五五”规划建议发布，持续提振市场信

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosts market confidence, and most varieties in the black sector showed an upward trend in the day and night sessions. Although policy implementation is long - term, market sentiment may be further boosted later. However, as the off - season approaches, the weakening of fundamentals is likely to limit the upward space of sector prices [1][2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Market Sentiment: The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has a positive impact on market sentiment, and there is potential for further improvement [1][2][6] - Industry Outlook: In the medium term, the industry is expected to oscillate. The fundamentals may weaken as the off - season begins, restricting price increases [6] 2. Iron Element - Iron Ore: The marginal weakening expectation of the fundamentals remains. Due to Tangshan's production restrictions and seasonal maintenance, the decline in hot metal output is expected. The arrival of domestic ores will be stable, and inventory will increase marginally. However, considering the decrease in the weight of fundamental pricing and the warming of macro - expectations, there is still support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of ore prices [2] - Scrap Steel: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and its price is expected to follow the trend of finished products in the short term [2][11] 3. Carbon Element - Coke: Environmental protection production restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited in Hebei. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - Coking Coal: The supply recovery is slow, and subsequent increments are limited. The middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low. With the positive macro - environment, there is support for periodic upward movement during the oscillation of coal prices [2] 4. Alloys - Manganese Silicon: Cost reduction is limited, and high steel production supports the price. However, the market has a pessimistic supply - demand expectation, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [3] - Silicon Iron: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [3] 5. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: As the meeting approaches, market expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound of the disk price. However, considering the inventory levels of the middle and lower reaches, the restocking space is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][15] - Soda Ash: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down to promote capacity reduction [3] 6. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The macro - environment is warm, but the actual steel inventory is high year - on - year, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant domestic policies and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [8] - Iron Ore: The macro - atmosphere is warm, and the disk price is strengthening. The fundamentals are slightly weakening, but overall contradictions are not significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - Scrap Steel: The arrival volume remains low, and the electric furnace profit is recovering. The price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [11] - Coke: Both supply and demand are weakening, and the disk is oscillating. The impact of environmental protection production restrictions is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] - Coking Coal: The supply recovery is slow, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is low. The price is expected to oscillate with support for periodic upward movement [14] - Glass: As the meeting approaches, expectations improve, and there is positive feedback space after the rebound, but the rebound space is limited. In the long - term, the price may oscillate downward [15] - Soda Ash: The output is increasing month - on - month, and the market is operating stably. It is expected to oscillate widely following the macro - environment, and the long - term price center will move down [16][17] - Manganese Silicon: The short - term price is supported, but the supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure [18] - Silicon Iron: High finished product output and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is limited [19]