甲醇日评：延续震荡偏弱行情-20251029

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. It is expected that the inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible drive lies in the possible reduction on the supply side. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Change - Methanol futures prices (MA01, MA05, MA09) decreased on October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025. For example, MA01 fell from 2268 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1] - Most methanol spot prices in different regions decreased, but prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly. For example, the price in Sichuan - Chongqing rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2195 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (0.23%) [1] - Coal spot prices decreased, such as the price of Buzhoukesi Q5500 coal fell from 575 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-3.48%) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 230.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton (-3.11%) [1] - Natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased from 33.00 yuan/ton to 23.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (-30.30%), while East China MTO profit increased from - 747.07 yuan/ton to - 714.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.50 yuan/ton (4.35%) [1] - Most of the downstream profits of methanol increased, such as MTBE profit increased from 341.48 yuan/ton to 380.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.32 yuan/ton (11.51%) [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 fell weakly, opening at 2267 yuan/ton, closing at 2241 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 685,035 lots and open interest of 1,221,292 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted to 80% capacity, and the number of shipped cargoes from the port in this country is extremely small. The estimated total methanol shipment volume from this country this month is around 800,000 tons [1]