Guoxin Securities·2025-10-29 02:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [5] Core Views - The company's net profit growth has turned positive, with a cumulative revenue of 491.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 177.7 billion yuan, up 1.08% year-on-year [1][2] - The net interest margin has stabilized, with a reported net interest margin of 1.26% for the first three quarters, unchanged from the first half of the year, but down 15 basis points year-on-year. The decline in new loan rates has gradually narrowed, and effective cost control on deposits has alleviated the downward pressure on asset yields [2] - The company's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.24% at the end of the period, unchanged from the end of September, and a provision coverage ratio of 197%, also stable [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 491.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 177.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.08% [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue growth of 0.58% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 5.1% year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in credit asset impairment losses by 8.8% and a decrease in the effective tax rate to 16.1% [1] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.24%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197%, indicating stable asset quality [2] - The company has reduced the provision for credit losses, contributing to improved profitability [1] Growth Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 241.6 billion yuan, 149.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [2][6] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65x, 0.61x, and 0.58x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]