新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-29）-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Fluctuation [2] - Soda ash: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 50: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level fluctuation [3] - Silver: High-level fluctuation [3] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak fluctuation [5] - Edible oils: Range-bound operation [5] - Meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [5] - Live pigs: Fluctuation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Fluctuation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Fluctuation [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro environment is warming up due to Sino-US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply and demand situations [2][3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets clear goals for economic and social development, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [4]. - Gold prices are affected by multiple factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, and are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3]. - The supply and demand of various commodities vary. Some are facing oversupply, while others are affected by factors such as weather, policies, and seasonal changes [2][3][5][7][9]. Summary by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: The supply is abundant, the demand is at a low level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The main lines to watch are the implementation of coal and coke "anti-involution" policies, steel mill profits and maintenance flexibility, terminal demand release intensity, and macro policy signals [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Driven by macro policy expectations, the market is concerned about the introduction of demand-side policies. The core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills, and the second round of coke price increases has been implemented. Short-term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industrial expectations [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The macro environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak. The steel price may stop falling if the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 is more than 5% and the "anti-involution" policy is strongly implemented [2]. - Glass: The demand is weak, the inventory is increasing, and the short-term price rebounds. The key is whether macro and production reduction policies can bring a turnaround [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The "15th Five-Year Plan" and the central bank's monetary policy are positive for the market. The market is in short-term consolidation, and the bullish sentiment is rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is falling, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is trending slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are affected by interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and inflation data. The short-term market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate meeting, and the prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The delivery rules of log futures may be optimized [5]. - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, the demand is poor, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - Offset paper: The supply pressure exists, the demand has not improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue the range-bound operation. Attention should be paid to the weather in the Brazilian soybean production area and the production and sales changes of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - Meal: Supported by trade optimism, the price of US soybean futures has risen. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also strong. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is increasing, the demand is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward. The slaughter rate is increasing, and the fat-to-standard price difference is widening [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather conditions, the demand is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The supply and demand of these products are different, and the prices are mainly affected by cost and market conditions. Some are in a wait-and-see state, and some are expected to fluctuate [9].