Dongxing Securities·2025-10-29 02:50Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% in the next 6 months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices, with significant downward trends observed in September 2025. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [16][19]. - The supply side indicates an increase in pig slaughtering due to cooler weather, leading to higher market supply and pressure on prices. However, demand was slightly boosted by holiday preparations, although overall consumption remained cautious [19][24]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing policy adjustments and the current low price environment will accelerate the reduction of production capacity, with a potential price rebound expected in the second half of 2026 [30][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.90 CNY/kg as of October 20, 2025, following a consistent decline post the National Day holiday [16][19]. - The supply of pigs has increased due to higher slaughtering rates and larger weights, while demand has been limited by slow inventory turnover of frozen products [19][24]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [24][30]. - The report notes that the average profitability for self-bred pigs is -185.68 CNY per head, with external pig purchases resulting in a loss of -289.07 CNY per head, highlighting the increasing financial strain on producers [30][24]. Future Market Cycle Predictions - The report emphasizes that capacity regulation driven by policy will remain a central theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity and improved profitability for leading firms [30][24]. - The industry valuation has shown some recovery but remains below historical averages, suggesting a safety margin for investments in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and others [30][24].