Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - The GDP growth rate in Q3 declined as expected, but the pressure to achieve the annual target is controllable. The GDP deflator shows a recovery trend, and its sustainability is worth noting. Fiscal policies are clearly发力 to support the economy, and the subsequent pace of domestic demand repair is crucial. The stock market reacted positively after the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, and the stock index may perform according to historical patterns [2]. - Optimistic expectations for Sino-US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite, which is beneficial for the RMB to appreciate against the US dollar. The central bank's guidance on the exchange rate is also a key factor. The key to the subsequent market trend lies in the Fed's interest rate meeting. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [4]. - The policy orientation of the speech at the opening ceremony of the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference on capital market reform is clear, but the implementation path focuses on gradualism, so it has limited impact on the A-share market in the short term. The stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly under the game between policy利好 expectations and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits [5]. Bond Market - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations has a strong signal meaning, which consolidates the market bottom and is conducive to the improvement of expectations. The bond market is expected to have a callback in the short term, but there is upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6]. Shipping - The container shipping to Europe route futures are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and geopolitical factors provide support at the bottom. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread fluctuations between near and far contracts [10]. Commodities Precious Metals - Although in the medium and long term, central bank gold purchases and the growth of investment demand will continue to push up the price center of precious metals, they are currently in an adjustment stage. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips in the medium term, and continue to hold the bottom position of previous long positions cautiously [14]. Base Metals - Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation. Speculators can enter the market to go long on dips near 86000±500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combination strategy of "selling put options + buying futures on dips" [16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina is expected to be weak, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long. Lithium carbonate is expected to be supported by demand. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. Lead is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [16][18][20][22][23][24][26][27] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term. LPG is expected to fluctuate. PTA - PX is expected to decline slightly with oil prices. MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood. Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases. PP and PE are expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by macro - trends and oil prices. Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited. Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities. Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda's production and sales have improved [34][36][39][41][45][48][49][50][51][53] Building Materials and Paper - Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space due to high - level supply and cost support. Glass is expected to continue to observe the sustainability of improved production and sales. Caustic soda is expected to be affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure. Pulp and offset paper are expected to be affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood. Logs are expected to have limited downward space in the short term [53][54][55][56][57] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics and Financial Futures - Market Information: The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes key core technology research, the "AI +" action, and boosting consumption. The trade situation eases, and the gold ETF has the largest single - day reduction in six months. The "small non - farm" ADP releases weekly employment data, and Trump may influence the Fed's decision - making. The US and Japan and South Korea have relevant cooperation agreements [1][3][5] - Market Review: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose, and the stock index opened lower and fluctuated. The trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the futures index had different volume and price performances [3][5] Bond Market - Market Review: Bond futures opened higher and closed up, and the end - of - month liquidity was tight [6] - Core Logic: The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading operations led to a sharp decline in spot bond yields, and bond futures made up for the increase. The market is expected to have a callback in the short term but upward momentum in the fourth quarter [6] Shipping - Market Review: The container shipping to Europe route futures traded lightly and fluctuated narrowly, and investors focused on geopolitical situations [7] - Information Sorting: There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduced expectation of Red Sea resumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy. Negative factors include uncertain macro - demand and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [8][9] Commodities Precious Metals - Market Review: Precious metal prices continued to adjust, showing a V - shaped trend during the day [12] - Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings: The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the holdings of gold and silver ETFs and inventories have changed [13] - This Week's Focus: Pay attention to US economic data and central bank interest rate meetings [14] Base Metals - Copper - Market Review: Copper prices in different markets had different performances, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - Industry Information: Copper inventories in different exchanges changed, and the copper consumption in the real estate industry declined [15][16] - Core Logic: Spot prices and premiums weakened, and the trading volume was light. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [16] - Aluminum and Its Industry Chain - Market Review: Aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy prices had different changes [17] - Core Logic: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong due to positive macro - factors and overseas supply disturbances. Alumina is expected to be weak due to over - supply, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices [17][18][19] - Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices fluctuated at a high level [19] - Core Logic: The external market is supported by low inventories, and the domestic market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock [20] - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: Nickel and stainless steel prices declined [20] - Market Analysis: They were affected by the overall weakness of the metal market, and the cost support of nickel iron loosened. Stainless steel may face production cuts [20][21][22] - Tin - Market Review: Tin prices fluctuated strongly [22] - Core Logic: The supply is weaker than demand, and tin prices are expected to be bullish [22] - Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: Lithium carbonate futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest increased [23] - Industry Performance: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was active, and prices rose [23] - Core Logic: The demand is good, and the price is expected to be supported [23][24] - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Review: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed [24][25] - Industry Performance: The spot market of the industrial silicon industry chain was average, and the photovoltaic industry was stable [25][26] - Core Logic: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon's fundamentals are weak [24][26] - Lead - Market Review: Lead prices fluctuated and declined [26] - Industry Performance: Lead battery enterprises plan to cut production [27] - Core Logic: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [27] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Market Review: Crude oil prices declined significantly [33] - Market Dynamics: API data shows changes in US oil inventories, and there are statements from relevant companies and countries [33] - Core Logic: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium and long term [34] - LPG - Market Review: LPG prices fluctuated [34] - Spot Feedback: The spot price and inventory of LPG changed [34] - Core Logic: LPG is expected to fluctuate in the short term [36] - PTA - PX - Fundamental Situation: PX and PTA's supply, inventory, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [37][38] - Core Logic: PTA is expected to decline slightly with oil prices, and the processing fee needs to be repaired [37][38][39] - MEG - Bottle Chips - Inventory and Devices: MEG's inventory and device operation status changed [39] - Fundamental Situation: MEG's supply, demand, and efficiency have changed, and the polyester demand is stable [39][40] - Core Logic: MEG is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro - mood, and the downward space is limited [40][41] - Methanol - Market Dynamics: Methanol 01 contract price and basis changed [41] - Inventory: Methanol port inventory changed [41] - Core Logic: Methanol's 01 contract pressure increases [41][42][43] - PP - Market Dynamics: PP prices declined [43] - Fundamental Situation: PP's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [44][45] - Core Logic: PP is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [44][45] - PE - Market Dynamics: PE prices declined [46] - Fundamental Situation: PE's supply, demand, and inventory have changed, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [47][48] - Core Logic: PE is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern [47][48] - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined [48] - Inventory Situation: Pure benzene and styrene port and factory inventories changed [48] - Core Logic: Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene's upward drive is limited [49] - Fuel Oil - Market Review: Fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [49] - Industry Performance: Fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [49] - Core Logic: Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited [49] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Review: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at a certain level [50] - Industry Performance: Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50] - Core Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil's upward drive is limited [50] - Asphalt - Market Review: Asphalt prices closed at a certain level [50] - Fundamental Situation: Asphalt's supply, demand, and inventory have changed [50][51] - Core Logic: Asphalt is waiting for short - selling opportunities [51] - Urea - Market Dynamics: Urea prices closed at a certain level [51] - Spot Feedback: Urea's spot price and inventory changed [51] - Core Logic: Urea is expected to face pressure after the rebound [52][53] Building Materials and Paper - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash - Market Dynamics: Soda ash price declined slightly [53] - Fundamental Information: Soda ash inventory changed [53] - Core Logic: Soda ash is expected to be limited in upward space [53] - Glass - Market Dynamics: Glass price rose [54] - Fundamental Information: Glass inventory increased [54] - Core Logic: Observe the sustainability of glass's improved production and sales [54] - Caustic Soda - Market Dynamics: Caustic soda price declined slightly [55] - Fundamental Information: Caustic soda inventory decreased [55] - Core Logic: Caustic soda is affected by short - term maintenance and long - term production pressure [55][56] - Pulp and Offset Paper - Market Review: Pulp and offset paper prices fluctuated [56] - Spot Market: Pulp and offset paper's spot price and inventory changed [56] - Core Logic: Pulp and offset paper are affected by paper mill price increases and macro - mood [56] - Logs - Market: Log prices and inventory changed [57] - Core Contradiction: Logs are undervalued, and there is a possibility of price repair [57] - Strategy Suggestion: Consider short - term short - selling and long - term short - selling strategies [57][58] - Propylene - Market Dynamics: Propylene prices declined [58] - Core Logic: Propylene is expected to fluctuate [58]
金融期货早评-20251029
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-29 02:55