沪锌早报：前期利空兑现，轻仓做多-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Bullish with Fluctuations [1] Core Viewpoints - The previous negative factors have been realized, and there are no more visible negative factors. It is recommended to start a light - position long - order layout at the time points of Sino - US negotiations, the restart of the US government, and upcoming major Chinese conferences [3] - Technically, after the formation of a small double - bottom structure, it continues to break upward, and long positions should be held [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - On October 27, former executives of Australian resource investor Taurus established a company that can provide up to $500 million in funds for each of multiple global strategic metal projects to fill the funding gap of junior miners. It will invest in developers of base metals such as copper, precious metals, bulk commodities, and some industrial metals, but not in the metal processing industries in West Africa [1] 2. Disk - The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,410 yuan/ton last night, up 0.18%. The trading volume was 54,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,163 lots to 118,500 lots [2] 3. Supply - The domestic processing fee has suddenly declined, while the imported processing fee has not. It is speculated that there is a reduction in domestic mine production rather than an increase in smelting output. The total supply at the smelting end remains high, and the profit of smelting enterprises also supports high - level production. The profit of mining enterprises has dropped to around 4,000, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The domestic TC price has not declined, and the imported TC has further increased. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but is still not low. Under the current processing fees, the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the supply side is generally in a loosening trend [2] 4. Demand - The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season did not bring an obvious month - on - month increase in initial consumption, which is in line with the market's description of "peak season without prosperity". However, from the weekly production data of galvanized coils, die - casting alloys, and zinc oxide, their absolute levels are not low. The galvanized coil data is much higher than the same period last year and has reached the second - highest level in the same period since 2018. The reason for the small month - on - month change is that the previous production of galvanized coils was not low. The production data of die - casting alloys has also reached a level close to the highest in the same period in history, and the small month - on - month increase is due to seasonal factors. Zinc oxide is the weakest part of the initial consumption but is basically the same as the same period last year and does not form a drag. From a quarterly perspective, zinc consumption is not weak [3] 5. Inventory and Structure - LME zinc inventories have been continuously decreasing, while domestic social inventories and SHFE inventories have been continuously increasing. Except for the main contract, the spot - futures and inter - month structures maintain a Contango structure [3] 6. Operation Suggestion - Light - position long - order layout [3] 7. Charts and Data Analysis - There are multiple charts showing macro indicators (exchange rates, Dow Jones Index), spot premiums and discounts (for zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc.), spreads (month - to - month spreads of lead and zinc, price differences between high - nickel iron and electrolytic nickel, etc.), inventory analysis (warehouse inventories of lead, zinc, and nickel in SHFE and LME), profit analysis (gross profit of domestic zinc smelters, profit of high - nickel iron production, etc.), and import profit and loss analysis (import profit and loss of lead, zinc, and nickel, and their Shanghai - London ratios) [4 - 65]