新投产装置持续放量，聚烯烃走势承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - Imports and Exports: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - PE: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - PP: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP - Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - Inter - variety: None [4]