航运日报：宏观层面关注中美关税谈判结果，船司端关注近期是否有11 月下半月涨价函发出-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, focus on the results of Sino-US tariff negotiations; on the shipping company side, pay attention to whether there will be a price increase notice for the second half of November [1][4] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year's long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed navigation [5] - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no current arbitrage strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 28, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,383.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,535.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1548.70, 1162.70, 1374.00, 1482.00, 1127.10, and 1788.30 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 24 is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 27 is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs, and in December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli - Palestinian conflict may affect shipping routes and supply chains. For example, the conflict in Gaza may reduce the probability of resumed navigation in February [2][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - If the Sino - US tariffs are partially reduced, it will promote the recovery of demand on the US line and support the prices of European routes to some extent. The shipping companies' adjustment of supply to maintain high freight rates is also related to the demand and economic situation in Europe [4]