申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View - The market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, providing some support for Treasury bond futures prices, given the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market Treasury bond trading operations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices generally rose on the previous trading day, with the T2512 contract rising 0.16% and its trading volume increasing [2] - The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally increased on the previous trading day, with SHIBOR 7 - day rate up 12.8bp, DR007 rate up 18.02bp, and GC007 rate up 5.4bp [2] - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield down 0.9bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread at 29.13bp [2] Overseas Market - The 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.6bp on the previous trading day [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 28, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, aiming at economic growth within a reasonable range, and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries [3] - The central bank governor said to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial supervision [3] - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [3] - The US Senate failed to pass the bill to end the government shutdown, and the government shutdown will continue [3] Industry Information - Most money market interest rates increased, and US Treasury bond yields showed mixed changes [3] Market Comment and Strategy - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased to 1.813%. The central bank's net investment and the expected Fed rate cut are important factors affecting the market [3] - The domestic demand side represented by real estate is still weak, but the market liquidity is expected to support Treasury bond futures prices [3]