新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝采购积极性增加但价格难涨-20251029

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Views - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain unchanged. Overseas production cuts and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. The upward space for aluminum prices may open if inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing alumina, but alumina prices lack upward momentum due to cost and supply factors. The current price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8]. Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - Spot prices: On October 28, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,160 yuan/ton, Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,030 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures prices: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on October 28, 2025, was 21,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 187,481 lots, and the open interest was 285,793 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,243 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 465,650 tons, a decrease of 3,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - Spot prices: On October 28, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,025 yuan/ton, and 3,035 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: The opening price of the alumina main contract on October 28, 2025, was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.28%). The trading volume was 314,332 lots, and the open interest was 389,764 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On October 28, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum and mechanical scrap aluminum were 16,700 yuan/ton and 16,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Overseas production cuts, stable consumption, and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - Alumina: Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing, but prices are under pressure due to cost and supply factors. The price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8].