黑色建材日报：宏观现实博弈，钢价维持震荡-20251029

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].