新能源及有色金属日报：现货成交相对清淡，铅价上行相对乏力-20251029

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]