原油日报：俄罗斯制裁有利于欧佩克继续增产-20251029

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Russia's sanctions are beneficial for OPEC to continue increasing production. With the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, it is expected that the production quota increase will continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the December - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.16 to $60.15 per barrel, a decline of 1.89%; the December - delivered Brent crude oil futures price in London fell by $1.22 to $64.40 per barrel, a decline of 1.86%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.78% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser said that global crude oil demand was strong even before sanctions on Russian oil companies. He predicted an oil demand growth of 1.1 - 1.4 million barrels per day next year, and oil and gas will remain important in the global energy structure in the coming decades [1]. - On October 28, oil prices declined for the third consecutive day as OPEC +'s production - increase plan outweighed the positive impact of trade optimism. OPEC + is likely to slightly increase production again in December. Sanctions on Russian oil companies previously boosted oil prices, and investors are now questioning their effectiveness. The IEA chief believes the impact of sanctions on oil prices is limited due to large surplus production capacity [1]. - The Iraqi oil minister stated that Iraq's daily oil export volume is 3.6 million barrels, with the Kurdistan region exporting about 195,000 barrels per day. Iraq's crude oil production capacity is 5.5 million barrels per day, but it adheres to OPEC's quota of 4.4 million barrels per day [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine will expand its strikes on Russian refineries [1]. Investment Logic - After Russia is sanctioned, it is conducive to OPEC's continuous production increase. Saudi Crown Prince will visit the US in mid - November. Based on the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, the production quota increase is expected to continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downward risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upward risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil, breakthroughs in China - US trade negotiations, and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3].