Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Investment Logic: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - Trading Strategy: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Investment Logic: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - Investment Logic: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - Investment Logic: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - Investment Logic: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - Investment Logic: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - Investment Logic: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - Investment Logic: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - Trading Strategy: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - Investment Logic: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - Trading Strategy: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Investment Logic: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - Trading Strategy: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - Investment Logic: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - Trading Strategy: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Logic: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Investment Logic: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - Investment Logic: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - Trading Strategy: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Investment Logic: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - Trading Strategy: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - Investment Logic: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - Investment Logic: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Investment Logic: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Investment Logic: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - Trading Strategy: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - Investment Logic: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - Trading Strategy: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - Investment Logic: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - Investment Logic: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Investment Logic: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - Trading Strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - Investment Logic and Trading Strategy: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - Trading Strategy: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251029
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-29 03:37