申银万国期货首席点评：强化逆周期和跨周期调节

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias for various varieties, with "偏空" (Bearish) and "偏多" (Bullish) ratings for different financial and commodity instruments such as stock indices, bonds, and commodities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and enhancing residents' consumption rate [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market and improve market - stabilizing mechanisms [7]. - Different commodities have their own market drivers and trends. For example, gold is influenced by factors like geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and market sentiment, while oil is affected by geopolitical sanctions and market trading trends [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Main News International News - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, leading to the continuation of the government shutdown [5]. Domestic News - The full - text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting goals for economic and social development, including economic growth, technological self - reliance, and reform breakthroughs [6]. Industry News - The central bank governor stated that the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, execute existing measures, and study new policies to support the capital market [7]. 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - A table shows the daily returns of various outer - market assets, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and different commodities such as oil, gold, and agricultural products [10]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Indices: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices are entering a direction - selection phase. With a potentially loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds opened higher and closed higher. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and expected market liquidity, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to be supported [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell at night. Geopolitical sanctions on Russian oil companies have been imposed, but the downward trend of oil prices remains due to unclear market situations and limited impact on Russian oil transportation [3][14]. - Methanol: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin and methanol production decreased, and coastal methanol inventories increased. Market uncertainties have intensified price fluctuations [15]. - Rubber: As the rubber - tapping season progresses, supply pressure may increase. However, potential weather impacts on production and positive progress in Sino - U.S. trade negotiations may support prices [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Following the oil trend and with high downstream demand, the market may start to oscillate after a short - term rebound [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures oscillated. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and market sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [18][19]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fell significantly and then rebounded slightly. Geopolitical risks have cooled, and after a rapid rise, prices are adjusting due to weakened driving factors and accumulated profit - taking [2][20]. - Copper: Copper prices rose at night. With a tight supply of concentrates and high smelting output, an Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices [21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. With an increase in zinc concentrate processing fees and expected production growth, the price may fluctuate within a range due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [22]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke market oscillated upwards at night. While high iron - water production provides support, the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits should be considered [23]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated upwards at night. With good progress in Sino - U.S. trade talks and high U.S. soybean export inspections, the domestic market may oscillate in the short term [24]. - Oils and Fats: Oil prices were weak at night. With expected increases in palm oil production and exports in Malaysia, and supply - side expectations of relaxation, short - term prices are under pressure [25]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated within a range. The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and Brazilian factors are dragging down prices. In the domestic market, cost support and import - related rumors may affect prices [26]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to oscillate. Affected by the U.S. government shutdown and domestic market conditions, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [27]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index oscillated. With multiple shipping companies reducing freight rates and limited capacity control, the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [28].